OFFICIAL GAME THREAD: Season On the Line PART II (vs. BILLS, 11/10)

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

C&O brought it up in his response, but it was actually 3rd and 2 from their 19 when we called a TO. The Bills called a time out after they converted a first down from their 27. Then 2 incompletes. Then the 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10. So the odds were even more in our favor that even if they converted after our TO that they wouldn't score.

You're right, the second 3rd down was at the 27. I meant the first 3rd down at the 19.

https://nfl-video.com/buffalo-bills-...24-nfl-week-10

You can watch the replay at 1:06:17... The Colts called a TO with :37 left. They initially ran the clock down to :33, but then brought back to :37 for the 3rd and 2 from the 19 yard line.

On the play, Allen hits the RB in the hands at :34 and Moore chases him down to the sideline for the tackle, and BUF calls TO at :30.

If they defended that pass or he dropped it, there's :33 seconds left and you still have 2 TO's. Even if they ran the ball and we stopped it, it would be a similar amount of time left, but they'd have to use a TO. They'd still have roughly :32 or :33 seconds and one TO.

A punt and a fair catch takes like 7 seconds. BUF's kicker averages 48, let's say he kicks it 50...

We'd have the ball at our 31 yard line with about 25 seconds + 1 or maybe even 2 TO's. We would need roughly 27 yards to get into Gay's range. Absolutely doable.

That's the biggest part, but that's not even the full calculus. Colts are one of 4 teams in the NFL to block a punt in each of the past two season. Then there's the chance for a significant punt return on top of that. Those potential scenarios likely play some role in the decision.

At the very worst, if none of that ^^ has a chance because we don't stop them... the HC should be able to trust that the defense won't give up a 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10 with :08 on the fucking clock.