Quote:
Originally Posted by IndyNorm
C&O brought it up in his response, but it was actually 3rd and 2 from their 19 when we called a TO. The Bills called a time out after they converted a first down from their 27. Then 2 incompletes. Then the 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10. So the odds were even more in our favor that even if they converted after our TO that they wouldn't score.
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You're right, the second 3rd down was at the 27. I meant the first 3rd down at the 19.
https://nfl-video.com/buffalo-bills-...24-nfl-week-10
You can watch the replay at 1:06:17... The Colts called a TO with :37 left. They initially ran the clock down to :33, but then brought back to :37 for the 3rd and 2 from the 19 yard line.
On the play, Allen hits the RB in the hands at :34 and Moore chases him down to the sideline for the tackle, and BUF calls TO at :30.
If they defended that pass or he dropped it, there's :33 seconds left and you still have 2 TO's. Even if they ran the ball and we stopped it, it would be a similar amount of time left, but they'd have to use a TO. They'd still have roughly :32 or :33 seconds and one TO.
A punt and a fair catch takes like 7 seconds. BUF's kicker averages 48, let's say he kicks it 50...
We'd have the ball at our 31 yard line with about 25 seconds + 1 or maybe even 2 TO's. We would need roughly 27 yards to get into Gay's range. Absolutely doable.
That's the biggest part, but that's not even the full calculus. Colts are one of 4 teams in the NFL to block a punt in each of the past two season. Then there's the chance for a significant punt return on top of that. Those potential scenarios likely play some role in the decision.
At the very worst, if none of that ^^ has a chance because we don't stop them... the HC should be able to trust that the defense won't give up a 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10 with :08 on the fucking clock.