OFFICIAL GAME THREAD: Season On the Line PART II (vs. BILLS, 11/10)

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Not necessarily defending Steichen b/c he's definitely shit the bed this year, but you're putting way too much blame on him for the Bills FG at the end of the first half. The D did give up a 44 yard pass play on 3rd and 10 a couple of plays after his timeout which got the Bills in said FG range.

I was responding to C&O in the other thread, but I'll bring it here, too.

That's another part of the calculus I left out. The Bills were 3rd & 2 at their own 27. The risk of giving up points, you would think, is pretty low.

But Josh Allen broke away from Dayo, tap danced away from Latu, and rolling to his right, launched a 44 yard rainbow. He made a fucking great play.

Where's the agency for these players? We always jump straight to Gus or Steichen or Ballard as if this is Madden and they're holding the controller. The players have to make plays and sometimes, the other teams' guy makes a fantastic one.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by rm1369

That’s only a small part of it. The bigger part was what the fuck did he think the Colts offense would do if they did get the ball back? The offense had a bad first half and had two turnovers and nearly 2-3 more. Yet it was a close game. If Buffalo was willing to take it into the half you fucking let them. The risk / reward here was way skewed even if they succeeded in getting the ball back. There is a difference between aggressive and stupid, and Steichen is fucking stupid.

AR and the O were bad against the Dolphins and got a much needed FG with 0:22 left in the half.

Risk/reward? Like I mentioned, after they converted the 3rd & 2, they're still at their own 27. It's 3rd & 10 at their own 27 with 0:18 left and you think Steichen was too reckless?

Too much "pack-it-up."

[ChaosTheory]

ALSO ...... The Dolphins WERE ALTREADY IN FIELD GOAL RANGE when the Colts called a timeout with 1:21 left.

The Bills, on he other hand, were DEEP IN THEIR OWN TERRIOTORY when the Colts called timeout, AND there was almost a full minute less left to play.


NOBODY questioned the timeout against the Dolphins, because they were already in field-goal range. That timeout was not controversial or questionable at all.

You're hung up on the wrong part about the Dolphins game. It was the aggression I'm referencing.

0:22 seconds left, you wanted them to kneel it and go into halftime licking wounds I presume.

That's fine. I appreciate the aggression, just like I did when Frank was here. Miss me with the coaching scared shit.

Also... you know what was more to blame for BUF getting a FG right before halftime? A fucking 44 yard bomb on 3rd & 10 with 0:18 seconds left.

[Colts And Orioles]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

You're hung up on the wrong part about the Dolphins game. It was the aggression I'm referencing.

0:22 seconds left, you wanted them to kneel it and go into halftime licking wounds I presume.

That's fine. I appreciate the aggression, just like I did when Frank was here. Miss me with the coaching scared shit.

Also... you know what was more to blame for BUF getting a FG right before halftime? A fucking 44 yard bomb on 3rd & 10 with 0:18 seconds left.

o


I'm not hung up. You referenced the Dolphins game, and I explained, in detail, why that was a totally different situation.

Calling a timeout with 1:21 left when the other team is already in field goal range is aggressive.

Calling a timeout with 33 seconds left when the other team has a 3rd-and 2 from their their own 19-yardline is stupid ...... aggressive and stupid are not mutually inclusive, though they do at times go together.

o

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

I was responding to C&O in the other thread, but I'll bring it here, too.

That's another part of the calculus I left out. The Bills were 3rd & 2 at their own 27. The risk of giving up points, you would think, is pretty low.

But Josh Allen broke away from Dayo, tap danced away from Latu, and rolling to his right, launched a 44 yard rainbow. He made a fucking great play.

Where's the agency for these players? We always jump straight to Gus or Steichen or Ballard as if this is Madden and they're holding the controller. The players have to make plays and sometimes, the other teams' guy makes a fantastic one.

C&O brought it up in his response, but it was actually 3rd and 2 from their 19 when we called a TO. The Bills called a time out after they converted a first down from their 27. Then 2 incompletes. Then the 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10. So the odds were even more in our favor that even if they converted after our TO that they wouldn't score.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

o


Calling a timeout with 33 seconds left when the other team has a 3rd-and 2 from their their own 19-yardline is stupid ...... aggressive and stupid are not mutually inclusive, though they do at times go together.

o

If the D does their job and stops them then we call another time out and get the ball in good field position w/ ~30 seconds to go. Plenty of time to potentially get in FG range. The TO was maybe a bit on the aggressive side, but it was nowhere near the Caldwell special you guys seem to think it was.

[Colts And Orioles]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

If the D does their job and stops them then we call another time out and get the ball in good field position w/ ~30 seconds to go. Plenty of time to potentially get in FG range. The TO was maybe a bit on the aggressive side, but it was nowhere near the Caldwell special you guys seem to think it was.

o


There would not have been 30 seconds to go. There were 33 seconds left to play when the timeout was called, and it was 3rd down. The Bills would have run another play, then punted the ball if the Colts' defense had stopped them. By that time, there would have been maybe 10 to 12 seconds left to play if the Colts had called a fair catch, and even less time if they had tried to run the punt back. The Colts then would have had either the ball at about their own 30 yardline with perhaps 10 or 11 seconds to go if they had called for a fair catch on the punt, or maybe the ball at about their own 40 yardline with 5 or 6 seconds left to play if they had tried to run the punt back for some yardage......there was virtually no chance that the Colts were going to get the ball back after the Bills ran 2 more plays (the 3rd down play and the punt), and gotten themselves into field-goal range.


All of that said, the Colts' defense did shit the bed by allowing the 44-yard pass completion 2 plays after the timeout, so the entire fiasco was a joint-effort in incompetence by both the defense and the head coach.

o

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

o





All of that said, the Colts' defense did shit the bed by allowing the 44-yard pass completion 2 plays after the timeout, so the entire fiasco was a joint-effort in incompetence by both the defense and the head coach.

o

Another indictment of Steichen. Game after game after game after game has he not seen, across 2 fucking seasons, that Gus Bradley is without question the DC you DO NOT want to put trust in a situation where the ONLY THING you have to guard against is a chunk play? I mean damn Shane, that is YOUR DC, you have seen exactly how he plays, you KNOW he is going to go into a deep shell there with the "keep it in front of you mindset"...

FUCK WHY DO WE DO SUCH STUPID SHIT!

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

o


There would not have been 30 seconds to go. There were 33 seconds left to play when the timeout was called, and it was 3rd down. The Bills would have run another play, then punted the ball if the Colts' defense had stopped them. By that time, there would have been maybe 10 to 12 seconds left to play if the Colts had called a fair catch, and even less time if they had tried to run the punt back. The Colts then would have had either the ball at about their own 30 yardline with perhaps 10 or 11 seconds to go if they had called for a fair catch on the punt, or maybe the ball at about their own 40 yardline with 5 or 6 seconds left to play if they had tried to run the punt back for some yardage......there was virtually no chance that the Colts were going to get the ball back after the Bills ran 2 more plays (the 3rd down play and the punt), and gotten themselves into field-goal range.


All of that said, the Colts' defense did shit the bed by allowing the 44-yard pass completion 2 plays after the timeout, so the entire fiasco was a joint-effort in incompetence by both the defense and the head coach.

o

Fair enough on the timing. I think there may have been a little more time left than that, but barring a big punt return or block/shanked punt you're probably right that we wouldn't have been able to get into FG position.

If we are going to lay blame though then it should be much more on the D than the TO call. Something like 90/10.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

C&O brought it up in his response, but it was actually 3rd and 2 from their 19 when we called a TO. The Bills called a time out after they converted a first down from their 27. Then 2 incompletes. Then the 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10. So the odds were even more in our favor that even if they converted after our TO that they wouldn't score.

You're right, the second 3rd down was at the 27. I meant the first 3rd down at the 19.

https://nfl-video.com/buffalo-bills-...24-nfl-week-10

You can watch the replay at 1:06:17... The Colts called a TO with :37 left. They initially ran the clock down to :33, but then brought back to :37 for the 3rd and 2 from the 19 yard line.

On the play, Allen hits the RB in the hands at :34 and Moore chases him down to the sideline for the tackle, and BUF calls TO at :30.

If they defended that pass or he dropped it, there's :33 seconds left and you still have 2 TO's. Even if they ran the ball and we stopped it, it would be a similar amount of time left, but they'd have to use a TO. They'd still have roughly :32 or :33 seconds and one TO.

A punt and a fair catch takes like 7 seconds. BUF's kicker averages 48, let's say he kicks it 50...

We'd have the ball at our 31 yard line with about 25 seconds + 1 or maybe even 2 TO's. We would need roughly 27 yards to get into Gay's range. Absolutely doable.

That's the biggest part, but that's not even the full calculus. Colts are one of 4 teams in the NFL to block a punt in each of the past two season. Then there's the chance for a significant punt return on top of that. Those potential scenarios likely play some role in the decision.

At the very worst, if none of that ^^ has a chance because we don't stop them... the HC should be able to trust that the defense won't give up a 44 yard bomb on 3rd and 10 with :08 on the fucking clock.