Building the ‘18 Colts and beyond

[sherck]

IND sends #6 overall (1,600 points).....

BUF sends #12 overall (1,200 points)
21st pick in 2nd round #53 overall (370 points)
21st pick in 4th round #121 overall (52 points)

IND 1,600 points vs BUF 1,622 points.

Is adding another 2nd round and 4th round pick worth it to move down 6 more spots?

We could demand one of their 3rd round picks for higher compensation (#32 in 3rd round #96 overall, 116 points) instead of the more appropriate 4th round pick.

Does adding a 2nd round and 3rd round pick worth it to move down 6 spots?

It feels like to me that we got GREAT value to move from 3 to 6. I don't know that dropping from #6 is going to reward in similar fashion.

#01 overall = 3,000 points
#02 overall = 2,600 points
#03 overall = 2,200 points
#04 overall = 1,800 points <== breakpoint
#05 overall = 1,700 points
#06 overall = 1,600 points
#07 overall = 1,500 points
#08 overall = 1,400 points
#09 overall = 1,350 points <== breakpoint
#10 overall = 1,300 points
#11 overall = 1,250 points
#12 overall = 1,200 points
#13 overall = 1,150 points
#14 overall = 1,100 points
#15 overall = 1,050 points
#16 overall = 1,000 points
#17 overall = 0,950 points
#18 overall = 0,900 points
#19 overall = 0,875 points <== breakpoint

The 100 point spread between #4 and #8 is worth about an early 4th round pick each step.

The 50 point spread between #9 and #18 are worth about a late 4th round pick each step.

The point being is that the first 3 picks of the draft FAR OUTWEIGHT the next 3 picks or beyond because of the much larger spread in points (400 points per step instead of 100 points per step).

We got GREAT value for the #3; we will not get nearly as much for the #6.

The key is how much better does the Colts management rate guys like Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Fitzpatrick (the typical "elite" non-QB players of the 2018 draft) versus the next tier down?

How much of a drop off is it in their mind to go from the "Elite 4" to guys like DT Maurice Hurst, S Derwin James, DE Harold Landry, LB Roquan Smith, OT Mike McGlinchey or LB Tremaine Edmunds? All of them would fill a "need" on the Colts roster and they are typically thought of players who will be picked in the middle of the 1st round.

I am pretty much Chubb, Nelson or trade down and keep stockpiling 2nd and 3rd round picks. There are lots of guys in the middle or bottom of the 1st round that I really like. Not as much as Chubb or Nelson, but them PLUS someone else (some multiple someone elses)?

Walk Worthy,