Quick thoughts.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

I already said, I draw that imaginary line at somewhere around # 15. Those dudes in that first group are just on a different level IMO. This is obviously a subjective topic, very few are going to agree on the precise definition of this or that player. If this were that objective, well then we wouldn't be having this debate.

So where in that list do you put Pittman? Who does he climb over to enter into the space of a true # 1 WR in the NFL?

I'm open to debate, but I need something to tell me why he is better than say 18 of those dudes ahead of him...

I put him in the 10 to 15 range. He doesn’t have another receiver to draw coverage away from him. He faces the opposing team’s best CB every week. And he has mid to bad QB play to deal with. But he is still putting up wr 1 numbers for three seasons. Also he is more, and better, than the contested catch wr ppl have him pegged as. He is not a burner but is very good at creating separation at the catch point. There is no one successful type of WR, lots of different kinds are successful.

Even though he’s 6’4, 223 pounds, he is able to create quick separation off the line. His 10-yard split was faster than all of these prospects at the combine even though he is 20lbs heavier than some:

Pittman Jr. = 1.51
Reagor = 1.52
Aiyuk = 1.52
Jefferson = 1.54
Higgins = 1.66

I don't have a whole lot from 2022, that was a fubar season, but a lot from 2021.

Michael Pittman Jr. was an absolute dog against single-man coverage in 2021, creating a step or more of separation on 66% of his opportunities.
Only Mike Evans (73%) and Keenan Allen (67%) finished higher.
He was only targeted 28% vs. s-man coverage while other leaders saw 40%+
Top-10 WRs at generating step or more of separation vs. single-man coverage in 2021 (min 70 routes against single man)

73% Mike Evans
67% Keenan Allen
66% Michael Pittman Jr.
65% Amari Cooper
65% A.J. Brown
64% Cooper Kupp
63% Jaylen Waddle
62% Marquise Brown
62% Brandin Cooks
62% Justin Jefferson

Michael Pittman Jr has this weird stigma around him that he is a contested catch guy... however only 20% of his catches in 2021 were contested. He’s an underneath smooth route runner. People think the only separation you can do is with deep balls and 4.3 speed. But a ton of receivers have been great without those attributes. Pittman generates his separation just before the point of contact with the ball. Creating a step or more before he catches the ball. He doesn't have that second gear to burn guys but that doesn't mean he doesn't do enough to get open.

He also had a higher average separation than guys like Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and D.J Moore last year (per Next Gen Stats) and a 96% success rate against press coverage. Press coverage is what these lighter speedy receivers have trouble with, but Pittman is strong enough to not be redirected.

Entering this season the top NFL receivers against press coverage.

1. Justin Jefferson (84%)
T-2. Stephon Diggs (83.3%)
T-2. A.J. Brown (83.3%)
4. Devante Adams (83.1)
5. Terry McLaurin (81.7%)
6. Michael Pittman (81.7%)
7. Garret Wilson (81.2%)
8. Ja'Marr Chase (80.2%)
9. Brandon Aiyuk (79.3%)
10. Jahan Dotson (78.8)AC

That's some elite company for a number 2 receiver.

Finally his stats. They place him in the 10-15 range. Number 2’s don’t get 1000 yards in their second year. This guy would be killing it with consistent QB play. He is their most consistent contributor for several years now. If he was easy to scheme away then he would be taken away.