Draft 2021

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

What in the film did you see that led you to those conclusions? I gave a very specific and detailed reasoning as to why I feel the way I do. I can accept that you have a different opinion, part of the reason I posted that was not being able to go back and specifically cite where I ranked Russell Wilson ahead of RGIII, also seen as crazy at the time. But it's going to take a lot more than "uh, no" to convince me that the flaws I saw on his film aren't real. As for what GMs would do, I acknowledged in my post that Lawrence has the highest ceiling in the group, and NFL GMs are very prone to convincing themselves to look past flaws and floor to try to get the best ceiling. I'd rather have the best range of outcomes, especially with a Top 10 pick, than just the best ceiling.

This quote of yours goes against what I saw.

Like I said, I watched a lot of Clemson games, not just this year. I disagree with pretty much all of the above quote. Instead of just writing all of this out, just take out your negatives for Lawrence and replace them with positives. He is the best prospect since Luck. We will see who is right or wrong, at least we won't get fired for getting it wrong.

For me:

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Fields
4. Lance
5. Jones (Although if Jones goes to the 49ers or Pats, I think he will do well). If he went to the Jags or Jets, not so much. I really think Jones has to have a great situation around him to flourish, like he had at Alabama.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Thing with Olujari, he will be a 9-tech. If they want to bring him in on 3rd and long, or maybe release him in the 4th quarter to close out a game - ok that’s fine with me. I think he might be the most productive of the bunch. But I don’t know if that is the best investment for a first rounder.

Phillips is intriguing, the athletiscm and potential is there, but he had 4 concussions at UCLA and they told him to quit football. He also broke his wrist on a moped accident. But the arm length, speed , explosion, all good. However, if Ballard passes on Montez Sweat, who Irsay commented on at the combine (something he never does). Are they going to draft Philips in the 1st?

I don’t know about the TJ Watt comparison, I haven’t seen one yet that fits. Even the Miami coach couldn’t come up with a comparison for him.

It’s good we signed Carrie bc he outplayed Sin last year. Xavier is on a one year deal, Sin is in a probe it year. I think you might be underestimating the teams need for a number one corner. Not to say pass rush is in better shape, it isn’t. I just like the chance to fill the corner position with that number one better than the pass rush position this year.

Pass rush guys I could see them drafting 2nd or later is Joe Tryon, Elerson Smith, Payton Turner.

Neither Houston nor Ngakoue has to play 9 tech to be successful, nor would Ojulari. Fortunately for us, Ron Meeks isn't still here, otherwise they might try. I'll admit Ojulari is more of a long term play than a short term quick fix to the pass rush problem. I think drafting Ojulari would almost certainly be accompanied by resigning Houston, which would allow the Colts to bring him along slowly and allow Ojulari to learn from two pass rushers he likely has a great deal of respect for that also share his size and speed profile in Houston and Robert Mathis.

Regarding Phillips, I know you respect Brett Kollman's opinion, so do I. Kollman released a video calling Phillips "a terrifying combination of the Watt brothers" last month. While I'm not as high on him as Brett is, if you watch that video, or really any tape of Phillips in 2020, you'll see a technically sound DE with length and athleticism that uses all those traits to effectively generate pressure and disrupt the opposing offense. That was exactly what I saw out of TJ Watt in 2016 when I wanted the Colts to either trade down and pick him or see him slide to their pick in Round 2 of the 2017 draft. Regarding Phillips's injury history, it's a valid concern, there's no two ways about that, and ultimately drafting Phillips would be contingent on getting clearance from the medical staff that they believe his injury history won't have a significant impact on his long term viability as an NFL player. But my understanding is Phillips's injury history is somewhat fluky in nature, he's just had very bad luck, like the moped accident you mentioned, but I wouldn't question his passion for the game based on UCLA's stupid rule that 3 concussions (and it was 3, not 4) is an automatic forced medical retirement from football at UCLA. In fact, I would argue his coming back from that and transferring elsewhere to finish his collegiate career proves a great passion for football, as he had the perfect out to get away from the game if he wanted to in UCLA's rule. Instead, he sought out a transfer, found a team he was able to make an impact with, and went out and had a pretty solid, productive season that was also injury free. It has to go through the medical team, but Phillips could be another guy like Watt and Sweat that we'll be wishing Ballard had pulled the trigger on several years later if he doesn't. As for a comp for Phillips, I already gave my reasoning on TJ Watt, but Phillips and Chase Young were neck and neck for top DE in the country when they came out of high school. That's mostly tongue in cheek, of course.

I fully understand this team has a long term need for a #1 shutdown corner type, but I also recognize that need as more long term the way the roster stands at present. CB is also a position that Ballard has had a lot of success at finding a lot of value on Day 3 and in UDFA, where DE/EDGE has been less successful in those regards. I'm not saying it's impossible the Colts would draft a CB at 21 or 54, but to me, doing that leaves you with a major glaring hole at LT or EDGE going into 2021 that you can try to fill with a developmental guy, but that may not work. If a CB is not drafted at 21 or 54, the Colts go into 2021 with Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore, Rock Ya-Sin, TJ Carrie, Isaiah Rodgers (who looked good down the stretch), and Marvell Tell III. That's a solid depth chart already, and while it would likely be intelligent to supplement it with a Day 2 pick in 2022 since Rhodes and Carrie aren't getting any younger, it's a fine group to get through the 2021 season with IMO.

I think there are a lot of players with a lot of potential to develop into quality pass rushers on Day 2 and beyond. A small list, in no particular order, that I think could find success as a pure edge or in the Denico Autry role for the Colts and could be available on Day 2:

Gregory Rousseau
Jayson Oweh
Ronnie Perkins
Payton Turner
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
Cameron Sample
Dayo Odeyingbo
Rashad Weaver
Tarron Jackson
Osa Odighizuwa
Milton Williams
Jaylen Twyman
Elerson Smith
Quincy Roche
William Bradley-King

Knowing Ballard's tendency to greatly value Senior Bowl performance, keep your eye on Elerson Smith, Tarron Jackson, and Cameron Sample from that group, as all 3 had excellent practice weeks at the Senior Bowl, most of all Elerson Smith, who seemed to beat everyone there in the same way Quinn Meinerz did, he just didn't get as much attention for it.

Originally Posted by Spike

This quote of yours goes against what I saw.

Like I said, I watched a lot of Clemson games, not just this year. I disagree with pretty much all of the above quote. Instead of just writing all of this out, just take out your negatives for Lawrence and replace them with positives. He is the best prospect since Luck. We will see who is right or wrong, at least we won't get fired for getting it wrong.

For me:

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Fields
4. Lance
5. Jones (Although if Jones goes to the 49ers or Pats, I think he will do well). If he went to the Jags or Jets, not so much. I really think Jones has to have a great situation around him to flourish, like he had at Alabama.

I'm not saying you're wrong because of this, but your ranking is the most consensus ranking of the QB position (6 is Mond, typically, by the way). That suggests to me that you're doing less watching of the film and more listening to the pundits who all seem to have this tendency to want to align with one another rather than have their own opinions. There should be a larger variance in prospect rankings than what exists in the general draft "expert" community, because not everyone is going to value the same traits at each position. I know that the traits I value at the QB position are the result of seeing what went right with my good evaluations over the years and what went wrong with my bad ones, and they tend to differ vastly from a lot of the scouting community. An easy example of this is that I value athleticism from the QB position much less than the average NFL scout or draft pundit, and I value anticipation throws much more. That's because, as I explained before, athleticism can land a QB on IR and/or cut his career short, and good pocket mobility is often a sufficient substitute at the QB position for athleticism, and one that will keep your QB around longer. Anticipation throws, meanwhile, are a good barometer of how much preparation work a QB is putting in, how well that QB understands the concepts of his offense and how quickly he can pick them up, and how well that QB can read a defense in real time, as well as pick up subtle nuances on certain players that will give him situational advantages in games. I'd say out of the scouting community that exists right now, the people who I most closely align with on evaluating QBs are Kyle Shanahan and Chris Simms. That's why I fully believe Mac Jones will be the pick at 3 and that the talk happening there isn't a smokescreen in the slightest.

Also, your comment on Mac Jones there doesn't make much sense to me. Of course situation is important for Mac Jones, situation is important for every player. Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be Patrick Mahomes had the Dolphins drafted him. Nate Solder would've likely been the colossal bust I thought he was destined to be had Dante Scarnecchia not gotten hold of him. Joey Galloway and Joe Horn were highly talented receivers who were never quite as good as Marvin Harrison in part because neither Galloway nor Horn ever had elite QB play, whereas Marvin had the greatest QB to ever play throwing him the ball for all but one season of his career. I could name hundreds and thousands more examples like this, but I think the point is made.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Gregory Rousseau
Jayson Oweh
Ronnie Perkins
Payton Turner
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
Cameron Sample
Dayo Odeyingbo
Rashad Weaver
Tarron Jackson
Osa Odighizuwa
Milton Williams
Jaylen Twyman
Elerson Smith
Quincy Roche
William Bradley-King

I would throw Patrick Jones II into that group as a late 2 or early 3 player.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I'm not saying you're wrong because of this, but your ranking is the most consensus ranking of the QB position (6 is Mond, typically, by the way). That suggests to me that you're doing less watching of the film and more listening to the pundits who all seem to have this tendency to want to align with one another rather than have their own opinions. There should be a larger variance in prospect rankings than what exists in the general draft "expert" community, because not everyone is going to value the same traits at each position. I know that the traits I value at the QB position are the result of seeing what went right with my good evaluations over the years and what went wrong with my bad ones, and they tend to differ vastly from a lot of the scouting community.

Translation: I want everyone to think I am the smartest in the room

Add in the 17 players you listed as people you like for other rounds, and you are throwing out a bunch of names, hoping to be able to point back here when one of them does well and say you knew it. You are probably the guy at parties who everyone avoids due to being a blowhard know-it-all.

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Neither Houston nor Ngakoue has to play 9 tech to be successful, nor would Ojulari. Fortunately for us, Ron Meeks isn't still here, otherwise they might try. I'll admit Ojulari is more of a long term play than a short term quick fix to the pass rush problem. I think drafting Ojulari would almost certainly be accompanied by resigning Houston, which would allow the Colts to bring him along slowly and allow Ojulari to learn from two pass rushers he likely has a great deal of respect for that also share his size and speed profile in Houston and Robert Mathis.

Regarding Phillips, I know you respect Brett Kollman's opinion, so do I. Kollman released a video calling Phillips "a terrifying combination of the Watt brothers" last month. While I'm not as high on him as Brett is, if you watch that video, or really any tape of Phillips in 2020, you'll see a technically sound DE with length and athleticism that uses all those traits to effectively generate pressure and disrupt the opposing offense. That was exactly what I saw out of TJ Watt in 2016 when I wanted the Colts to either trade down and pick him or see him slide to their pick in Round 2 of the 2017 draft. Regarding Phillips's injury history, it's a valid concern, there's no two ways about that, and ultimately drafting Phillips would be contingent on getting clearance from the medical staff that they believe his injury history won't have a significant impact on his long term viability as an NFL player. But my understanding is Phillips's injury history is somewhat fluky in nature, he's just had very bad luck, like the moped accident you mentioned, but I wouldn't question his passion for the game based on UCLA's stupid rule that 3 concussions (and it was 3, not 4) is an automatic forced medical retirement from football at UCLA. In fact, I would argue his coming back from that and transferring elsewhere to finish his collegiate career proves a great passion for football, as he had the perfect out to get away from the game if he wanted to in UCLA's rule. Instead, he sought out a transfer, found a team he was able to make an impact with, and went out and had a pretty solid, productive season that was also injury free. It has to go through the medical team, but Phillips could be another guy like Watt and Sweat that we'll be wishing Ballard had pulled the trigger on several years later if he doesn't. As for a comp for Phillips, I already gave my reasoning on TJ Watt, but Phillips and Chase Young were neck and neck for top DE in the country when they came out of high school. That's mostly tongue in cheek, of course.

I fully understand this team has a long term need for a #1 shutdown corner type, but I also recognize that need as more long term the way the roster stands at present. CB is also a position that Ballard has had a lot of success at finding a lot of value on Day 3 and in UDFA, where DE/EDGE has been less successful in those regards. I'm not saying it's impossible the Colts would draft a CB at 21 or 54, but to me, doing that leaves you with a major glaring hole at LT or EDGE going into 2021 that you can try to fill with a developmental guy, but that may not work. If a CB is not drafted at 21 or 54, the Colts go into 2021 with Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore, Rock Ya-Sin, TJ Carrie, Isaiah Rodgers (who looked good down the stretch), and Marvell Tell III. That's a solid depth chart already, and while it would likely be intelligent to supplement it with a Day 2 pick in 2022 since Rhodes and Carrie aren't getting any younger, it's a fine group to get through the 2021 season with IMO.

I think there are a lot of players with a lot of potential to develop into quality pass rushers on Day 2 and beyond. A small list, in no particular order, that I think could find success as a pure edge or in the Denico Autry role for the Colts and could be available on Day 2:

Gregory Rousseau
Jayson Oweh
Ronnie Perkins
Payton Turner
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
Cameron Sample
Dayo Odeyingbo
Rashad Weaver
Tarron Jackson
Osa Odighizuwa
Milton Williams
Jaylen Twyman
Elerson Smith
Quincy Roche
William Bradley-King

Knowing Ballard's tendency to greatly value Senior Bowl performance, keep your eye on Elerson Smith, Tarron Jackson, and Cameron Sample from that group, as all 3 had excellent practice weeks at the Senior Bowl, most of all Elerson Smith, who seemed to beat everyone there in the same way Quinn Meinerz did, he just didn't get as much attention for it.



I'm not saying you're wrong because of this, but your ranking is the most consensus ranking of the QB position (6 is Mond, typically, by the way). That suggests to me that you're doing less watching of the film and more listening to the pundits who all seem to have this tendency to want to align with one another rather than have their own opinions. There should be a larger variance in prospect rankings than what exists in the general draft "expert" community, because not everyone is going to value the same traits at each position. I know that the traits I value at the QB position are the result of seeing what went right with my good evaluations over the years and what went wrong with my bad ones, and they tend to differ vastly from a lot of the scouting community. An easy example of this is that I value athleticism from the QB position much less than the average NFL scout or draft pundit, and I value anticipation throws much more. That's because, as I explained before, athleticism can land a QB on IR and/or cut his career short, and good pocket mobility is often a sufficient substitute at the QB position for athleticism, and one that will keep your QB around longer. Anticipation throws, meanwhile, are a good barometer of how much preparation work a QB is putting in, how well that QB understands the concepts of his offense and how quickly he can pick them up, and how well that QB can read a defense in real time, as well as pick up subtle nuances on certain players that will give him situational advantages in games. I'd say out of the scouting community that exists right now, the people who I most closely align with on evaluating QBs are Kyle Shanahan and Chris Simms. That's why I fully believe Mac Jones will be the pick at 3 and that the talk happening there isn't a smokescreen in the slightest.

Also, your comment on Mac Jones there doesn't make much sense to me. Of course situation is important for Mac Jones, situation is important for every player. Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be Patrick Mahomes had the Dolphins drafted him. Nate Solder would've likely been the colossal bust I thought he was destined to be had Dante Scarnecchia not gotten hold of him. Joey Galloway and Joe Horn were highly talented receivers who were never quite as good as Marvin Harrison in part because neither Galloway nor Horn ever had elite QB play, whereas Marvin had the greatest QB to ever play throwing him the ball for all but one season of his career. I could name hundreds and thousands more examples like this, but I think the point is made.

NO, just fucking NO! I have already told you that I watched a lot of Clemson games, and it is my fucking opinion that he is the best QB coming out of college. I didn't need the pundits to tell me what I saw. He is head and shoulders the best QB coming out of college, period! You have a lot of great points, but you are not the only one who watches game tape. I just am not as high on Jones as you are. Plus, Sewell is going to be a great pro.

As far as Marvin vs. Galloway, give me a fucking break here please. Give either one of them the same QB and Marvin would still be head and shoulders the better wide receiver. Just watch the fucking tape, like you say you do. Marvin was better in every aspect of the game than Galloway.

The bottom line though is that anyone who would take Jones over Lawrence is living in crazy town. Lawrence can take a bad team and make them better, Jones just fucking can't. Jones can go to a team like the 49ers or Pats and do well though. Remember that Shanahan wanted Cousins, that is who Jones is.

As far as the rankings go, I will say that I really only watched Lawrence, Fields, and Jones. The other 2, not so much.