Complete rebuild?

[MeSayDayo]

Originally Posted by Ironshaft

Things that I think:

1. I agree with the above statement that only the hiring of Jim Harbaugh or Sean Peyton as the next Colts Head Coach will allow us to sign quality free agents in the next year or three. I am unsure if there is going to be an exodus of quality free agents from our team. Are Okereke, Speed, Pittman and Taylor going to choose to not re-sign with us if we offer a fair contract rate with the promise/reality of a rookie QB?

2. I am not convinced that a total rebuild is required. This team, I believe, would have won 8-10 games at this point with a franchise QB of average to above average starting ability. I think that one change would have made all the difference to this 2022 roster. That said, I think we are heading towards at least a mini-rebuild based on item #4. NOTE: A total rebuild is one in which you try to trade almost any veteran player not on a rookie contract for draft picks. I don’t think we are there.

3. There is NO WAY Jim Irsay is going to allow the signing of another veteran QB to try and compete with the Colts. After three strikes (Rivers only being a 1-year rental, Wentz and now Ryan), that line of attack is, I believe, OUT. I think there is zero chance we do not draft a 1st round rookie QB in either the 2022 or 2023 draft.

4. Rookie QBs are AT LEAST a two-year project until they reach franchise QB level of play but more likely a three-year project (if they ever reach it). So, the 2023 season is a loss for sure even with a rookie QB. 2024 might be as well but the Colts really need to be targeting 2025 as the start of (hopefully) their next drive towards contention.

5. Players on the 2023 Colts roster who are making “big” bucks over $5m cap hit:

QB Matt Ryan, 37 years old, signed through 2023 season = $35.205m
LB Shaquille Leonard, 27 years old, signed through 2026 season = $20.210m
DT DeForest Buckner, 28 years old, signed through 2024 season = $19.750m
OT Braden Smith, 26 years old, signed through 2025 season = $19.000m
OC Ryan Kelly, 29 years old, signed through 2024 season = $12.375m
OG Quenton Nelson, 26 years old, signed through 2026 season = $12.200m
CB Stephen Gilmore, 32 years old, signed through 2023 season = $11.980m
NT Grover Stewart, 29 years old, signed through 2023 season = $10.625m
CB Kenny Moore, 27 years old, signed through 2023 season = $7.545m
TE Mo Allie-Cox, 29 years old, signed through 2024 season = $5.310m

Cutting Ryan is a must do (saving $17.205m from the 2023 salary cap). He cannot be on the roster next year. End of story.

Gilmore, Stewart and Moore only have one year left on their contracts. I am fine with letting them play out their last year and then let our new management decide if they are going to attempt to re-sign 30-year-old Grover Stewart or 28-year-old Kenny Moore or let them walk.

Buckner and Allie-Cox both have two years left on their contract. Both are productive enough (and low priced enough in Cox place) that I would be fine with letting them ride out their time and let management make decisions on them following the 2024 season. That said, if a contender came to us with a trade offer for Buckner, I would entertain it. He deserves to have a shot at a ring.

I think you must decide on Offensive Line. I don’t believe you can be paying three guys that much and get so little production. Of the three, I think you cut Kelly (for a $7.875m cap savings) because he is older, closer to the end of his contract and his play has slipped more and draft a young OC to “grow up” with your new franchise QB.

I think you also must decide on Shaquille Leonard. He is the only player on our roster, in my opinion, who has a TON of trade value even coming off an injury and is a top LB when healthy. However, E.J. Speed has shown that he can replace a good portion of Leonard’s production at a fraction of his price tag. If you can get good trade value out of Leonard, I think this is the time to do so.

5. 2023 UFAs of note are: DE Yannick Ngakoue, WR Ashton Dulin, WR Parris Campbell, P Matt Haack, PK Chase McLaughlin, LB Bobby Okereke, LB E.J. Speed and CB Brandon Facyson. Of the list,

I think you re-sign both Haack and McLaughlin to veteran rate contracts. Kickers don’t cost very much, and both have performed well this season. If the Colts want to go with Sanchez instead, er, whatever.

Signing Okereke is the only “must do” on my list with Speed rising to that category if you end up trading Leonard. Both will get paid well but not as well as Leonard as they don’t have the stats.

After 4 seasons in the NFL:
Speed……. 58 games / 06 games started / 096 tackles / 07 TFL / 01 sacks / 0 INTs / 02 FF
Okereke…. 61 games / 54 games started / 389 tackles / 13 TFL / 02 sacks / 3 INTs / 03 FF
Leonard….58 games / 58 games started / 549 tackles / 30 TFL / 15 sacks / 11 INTs / 17 FF

I think you offer whatever the GM decides is a “fair” price to Ngakoue, Dulin and Campbell and if they sign, great and if they do not, that is also fine. I don’t think any of them will be “core” pieces moving forward but they all bring some value to the roster.

6. Colts 2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (WAS), 4th, 5th, 6th (BUF), 7th (TB), 7th. I think that QB must be the 1st round pick if the guy they want is there. If he is not there, then BPA. At least one of the 2nd or 3rd round picks must be used on Offensive Center in my scenario. All things being equal, I would probably use both the other 2nd/3rd/4th round picks on Cornerback as your CB room must get younger and better. Gilmore will still be the #1 next season with Rodgers as the #2 and Moore as the slot but you need to start building behind them to replace them in 2024.

7. My priority for free agency in 2023 then is:
A. Starting right OG
B. Offensive Line depth
C. General depth across the entire roster

8. Save the cap for re-signing our own young pieces I would consider “core,” (Okereke and Speed in 2023, Pittman, Taylor, Blackmon, Issiah Rodgers in 2024) and then making, perhaps, big free agent acquisitions in 2025 to then go with a, hopefully, maturing young QB to start the next contender drive for the Indianapolis Colts.

9. With only the cutting of Ryan and Kelly, Colts would have around $50m to re-sign our own free agents or sign new guys in 2023. With only the need to re-sign a LB or two and an OG, I could see some of that cap amount being used to re-sign Pittman or Taylor “early.”

In 2024, we will have somewhere between $130 – 150m free cap space (minus the signings of Okereke, Speed, Pittman or Taylor) and in 2025, we have a projected $180-200m free minus the signing of guys.

The only “big” contracts we have averaging over $15m a year are: Ryan (soon to be cut), Buckner (next 2 years), Nelson (26-year-old core player), Leonard (27-year-old core player or trade bait) and Braden Smith (26-year-old core player). Roster management is looking good.

So, lots of thoughts thrown in there but I think we should pretty much “stay the course” with a pause on signing any new free agent acquisitions while we mature our young new QB. We will need to replace ageing veterans as they contract expire and (hopefully) be able to sign younger guys coming off their rookie contract whom we consider “core” but I think we are a long way away from a total roster re-build.

Have at it, Freaks!

Nice post. Well thought out, and likely the direction we will have to go if we want to do this thing properly.
My only gripe is the fact that you pretty much said we must take a QB with the first pick- to which I agree. However later in your post you alluded to the fact that if your guy isn't there, we go with BPA in the first. This is where I think you are wrong, and that regardless of BPA at wherever we pick (4-7 if I were to guess) we MUST swing for a QB. It's QB or bust there. Even if we trade back 5-10 picks and reach for AR15, we still need to take a signal caller with our first pick. It's a non negotiable and likely Ballard's last stand to win Little Big Horn....but if we can't get high enough in the draft order (further making the Nick Foles start more mind boggling), it could end up being another massacre.
The reason why the Colts could likely fuck this all up is because they have shown me no faith in even being on the same page as it pertains to properly throwing the season to accomplish our required goals going forward. I actually think there are many on the Colts that actually believe that the team still is playing for something this year and they must field the most competitive team- in reality, we should be in full evaluation mode.