Quote:
Originally Posted by rm1369
I get disagreeing but the idea it is “fucking dumb” is a little out there. Even the IndyStar analysis that supported kicking seems to show a fairly small advantage by kicking (although they misrepresent their own numbers). First, kicking the field goal would actually lower their win chance by 1.5%. Converting would increase it by 4.5%. So a swing of 6% between kicking and going for it and converting. Going for it and not converting lowered their win % by 9.3%. That’s a net 7.8% difference between kicking and going for it and not converting (not the 10% the article says). The league average conversion rate on 4th and 1 is 56.3%. This hardly the obvious stupid call you are trying to make it out to be.
And none of that takes into account the 3rd string LT and the largely stagnant 2nd half offense. That is a major factor in my support for going for it. .
|
Like I said, in certain circumstances it's fine, but at THAT point in the game, you take the points and get up by 7 points to force the texans hand. The analytics do not always tell the correct picture, that's why it's fine at times, and other times you have to actually think for yourself.
Having a 3rd string LT and a stagnant offense would make me even LESS inclined to go for it, because your chances of converting the 4th and short with backups is less than with starters. Do analytics take that into account? Of course not.
Take the points and make them score the TD and convert the 2 point play if they're going to beat you.