Realistic Expectations for the Season?
 

I really liked the thread about the honest expectations for JB. So much so I decided that with the dust settled a bit and a lot of people sort of seeming to see who is in charge now and not feeling so shitty, what is the sentiment on a realistic expectation for the season?

We see some killer QB's this year. I think the Jags are serious with Foles at the helm and that D looks nasty.

I also think we have a very below the radar defense that is going to scare some folks with the speed and physicality they display. I think Tuary is going to be the emerging star of this unit this year and I think Hooker with all this in front of him finally comes of age as a center fielding ball hawk.

The offense to me at least, is maybe approaching an all around skill level that is nearing the Marvin, Reggie, Stokely, Clark level. TY is sick and might not move the chains like either Marvin or Reg, but he also trashes D like crazy, Ebron et al including Funchess create huge match up problems---- there is certainly no Reggie yet, but I am really thinking Cain is going to shine and then there's the potential that a combo of Hines and Campbell just blow things wide open and set this Offense appart. Obviously no Edge in there- but I do think Mack is a notch better than Addai and he and Dom got us a title. Oline, man we had some great ones back in the day but the 5 that were together for the final push last year, those dudes mauled people, mauled better than I ever recall any of the Manning lines moving people off the ball...

Overall, I like what we have and I really think we may have the games most skilled game manager wearing the headset in Reich. He is daring but not reckless and he plays to the strengths of his personnel.

I am going to put us back at 10-6 and in the playoffs. I again think we win the first game but have to go on the road in the 2nd round. There to me, it all depends on how far Brisset has come, if he's the leader they say he is, I can see this team getting to the Conference game but that's it for this year.

A lot of good, reasonable points in there. I think 10 wins is definitely possible (maybe ~20% likely if I had to guess), but I do have three significant concerns that make me think 6-7 wins is the most likely outcome.

1) I’m not convinced Brissett is a top 20 QB and it’s really hard for those teams to be above .500. Just look at how Denver has done with a great defense and no QB since Peyton retired. Or even a team like Buffalo.
2) I think this OL is a bit overrated. They’re leaps and bounds better than 2017, but I think Luck masked some protection issues last year which Brissett won’t be able to replicate. If they could consistently win in the running game, I’d feel much better.
3) Pass rush. I’m more encouraged than I’ve been in any post-Mathis season, but if they can’t get consistent pressure in 2019, it will hurt them. They left a few games on the table in 2017 because of the lack of pressure. Hopefully they step up.

Good points in there as well.

I am not sold Brisset is a top 20 QB either, but I also think he might not have to be with this team, and most important to me, this coaching staff.

Some of those other teams you mention, I watch them and literally just sit there and wonder what the effin' game plan is? I often equate it to the Jim Caldwell days- what exactly are you trying to accomplish, because to me, it looks like you just have this script of plays you are going to call no matter what and if they don't work, screw it, punt and let's see if we can beat them with D.

Outside of the KC playoff game last year (no idea what the hell that was, no friggin' idea - the cleats, the snow showers, F if I know but I'lll give them the mulligan...), but outside of that game I felt all last year that this team had a plan, that they went after things with a specific intent. That said, I also came away watching them and feeling a little like and I'm fucking hating typing this- feeling like I was watching the Pats. For seemingly centuries they have ruled the NFL by playing ball within 5-7 yards of the line of scrimmage, just rubbing people all over the field- chewing up clock and demoralizing defenses. I saw us doing that same thing, and it was kind of fun!

Similarly on D, it did not feel like we just took the damn "this is our scheme, we won't alter it for nothing (even Dungy was guilty of this) so I hope you didn't game plan for us"... it seemed like we actually went into games with unique plans in place- it was very refreshing.

So while I do understand the feeling that the QB play may be so inferior as to derail a run, I think we have a staff that is not going to pull a Pags and Pep (hey remember that turd) and just "do what we do" and see what happens. I think they will game plan around Jacoby's strength's, try to mask his weaknesses, and ultimately look to win a lot of close games with good scheme and good leaders.

At best 9-7

Probably 7-9

Put the beat down on the Titans and maybe Marcus Mariotta will be available?

:eek:

Please just beat the Titans. I will never hear the end of it from my redneck Titans fan buddy if they don't. He has already been talking shit about Luck retiring.

Ask them about that QB they got from the U of Texas

Ballard wanted to build a team of high character men. What this team does this season will be a huge test of that. As for expectations, I don't really expect us to be playing meaningful football in December this year.

Did you see his lowlights the other night- this cat may be done for already, he looked horrible.

10-6 still take the afc south this team always performs better as underdogs

I want either ten wins or two wins. Nothing in between. Sadly, I think that is where we will end up.

yep, we will be just good enough to not get a high draft pick but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

So if this is true, and I think it is the most likely outcome, how do we escape this particular kind of football hell?

5-11 or thereabouts

you cant unless you produce a terrible year when some good QBs come into the draft or somehow get lucky with a FA QB which isnt likely to happen.

no one on the current staff would seem to be the type to tank.

After checking the schedule, anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8, so probably 7-9.
This assumes Brissett plays all games.
If Kelly gets up to speed and plays at least half the games, 10-6 is possible.

Agreed. It's though adjusting your hopes down from a possible run where you had a chance every year to go make it to the Super Bowl to whatever it is we are now. To be a consistent threat you seem to need a franchise qb.

I count 9 winnable games, 1 I'm fairly confident about, so I'll say 5-11. Hopefully that's bad enough for a Top 5 pick.

Well we squandered it. Backed a couple idiots too long. Teams already move on after a season or two. I wonder if they will move even faster now afraid their window might retire after a big contract.

I don’t even know if I want any of the QBs in this draft.

The only way I'd be wanting a 2 win season is if they'd already lost the first 14 games. For me, every game is a thing unto itself and I want a "W", a resounding "W"

Glad to see that you've come down off that ledge!! I can also see a 10/11 win season!! GO COLTS

The only games I'm penciling in as losses are @KC and @NO. While the Colts won't be favored in some others (e.g. @LAC), they're probably about 35-40% likely to win those games.

2019 predicition
 

Hope I'm way off but my prediction is 6-10 and no playoffs

Still 10-6 still afc south champs

Jacoby can run this thing, don’t turn it over get the ball out quick

Colts compete for the division and thats about it.

Marlon Mack is introduced to the rest of the NFL and goes to the pro-bowl.

After mulling this over. I think the Colts were a 13-3 team with Luck. I think Brisset is about a 4 game difference. Perhaps 6-8 pts a game. So I see us having 9 wins and perhaps getting into the playoffs by winning the division. I think the Jaguars will be the main competition for the division followed by Tennessee. The Texans will finish last and they will fire their coach.

On the eve of the season and I’m just not sure what to expect. How has the team responded to everything? Have they rallied behind Brissett or are they discouraged over Luck? I think the answer to that question will tell us a lot.

I’m going to guess anywhere between 5-11 and 8-8. With my expectations being more toward 5-11.

Sadly, I feel we’re stuck in qb purgatory for awhile. I don’t think Kelly or Brissett are the long term answer.

Brissett is going to do better than we think. I’m basing this on the team around him. He has a lot of weapons. With luck this team is probably 13-3 or 14-2 With JB I say 9-7 or 10-6. Need the chargers game to get to 10-6 IMO

Losses to Chiefs Steelers Saints @Jags @ Tennessee and another one somewhere. Possibly both Tenn games

Luck was better than JB, but not more than two games better.

So since I was saying 12-4 with Andrew, let's go with 10-6, division title, and then, unless they hit KC again, at least one playoff win.

I think everyone here is underestimating how valuable Andrew Luck was. I like what Ballard has done with the team as a whole, but Luck was on a completely different level than Brissett as a QB. I think with careful management and gameplans designed to build confidence, Reich may be able to get average to above average starter production out of Brissett, but he's not going to win you games like Luck. It's possible that the young talent on this team is ready to step up and this could still be a playoff team, but I think it's much more likely that we're trying to figure out which of Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm we want.

I don't think we will have a shot at any of those QB's. I don't know if I want them either. And outside of a total collapse we will not get Lawrence in 2021.

I don't know if I am elevating JB so much as elevating the talent around him. Four top 40 picks on the offensive line to protect him. His receivers in 2016 besides TY were Dorsett, Moncrief, Rogers, and Quan Bray. TE's Allen and Doyle; with RB's Gore and Turbin. This year he has TY, Rogers and Doyle again, but you add Funchess, Ebron, Cox, Hentges, Cain, Cambell, and Pascal. Much more YAC potential with Ebron, Cain, and Cambell. Out of the backfield Mack and Hines, who is almost a receiver.

Add a younger faster defense with a good pass rush specialist. I see wins being more complete and dependant on team play. The won't lean on JB like they did on Luck. He needs to be more game manager and just move the chains, get the ball to his playmakers and let them work. Lean on the defense more.

I had always felt that our being a Super Bowl contender was more about the improvement in defense than anything else. If Brissett performs like Ballard/Reich think he will (and I do think both are straight shooters) this offense should be playoff caliber.

I think the floor is 6 wins, upside is 11, 8 is most likely. No Brissett won't win games like Luck, but the group around him is better than any that Luck ever had. That's where the upside comes in.

Plus, the NFL is just fucking weird due to the small sample size. A couple injuries or turnovers here and there can make a huge swing in a team's final record. Players can play above their heads for stretches and make all the difference (see: Foles, Nick; Flacco, Joe).

There's almost always a game that a team needs their QB to win, even the most complete teams. I don't think Brissett has that ability. I hope he proves me wrong.

I'm not sure what you mean. Frank Reich was a mediocre quarterback that led one of the greatest comeback in NFL history. Are you saying Brissett is incapable of leading this team to victory once we are behind? The only way I think this statement is true is if Brissett is the second coming of Tolzien. I think you are way underselling this young man's (and this coaching staff's) potential.

The thing that made that game so historic was the sheer improbability of it. I think I don't want to see what happens if Jacoby Brissett is facing a 38-10 third quarter deficit in the playoffs and coming off of his third interception of the game. I'd certainly be absolutely stunned to see him turn that into a 45-44 win.

I agree with this. It would be stunning, however, regardless of who is the qb. Brissett won't due what Luck did for us (you don't need what Luck did for us to win-Brady isn't near the athlete Luck is but has led his team to umpteen Super Bowls). If the season turns to shit I don't think it will because of Brissett. Like you, however, I am concerned-I just harbor more hope.

Realistic Expectations:
I expect the defense to be better than last year.
I expect brissett will be better under reich than he was under pagano.
I expect the team to be a up and down.
I expect we will win 6-7 games.

I expect our running game to be better than last year also.