Very quick draft thoughts
 

For anyone else living in central Indiana: what a shitty day to host a cookout, huh? Swear, the last two I've hosted have been that day it randomly snowed 2 inches a few weeks back, and today. I'm cursed.

Anyway, my thoughts really quick...


1. I don't pretend to be a draft scout or have scouted hours of film on every player. I hope no one here does either, and takes with a grain of salt anything anyone who isn't scouting year-round has to say.

2. I really like the philosophy of this draft class. For players, I'm going to speak more in terms of skillsets, projections and roster fits than talent. But overall, I think the philosophy was clear: Ballard saw that KC tape and said "we are not nearly athletic enough over the MOF, and we are not nearly physical enough on the boundary to challenge slants etc."

The picks, then, followed a philosophy of: get more athletic at the second level, and give the defense more multiplicity. Where Colts were often forced into soft zone vs top-tier passers last year, I believe they saw the QBs due up this year and said: we have got to get more multiple in our looks.

This draft should evolve Ebeflus' playbook. In theory, Colts should be able to play more man where they want, and should have a lot more options for nickel/dime packages, and matching up against athletic TEs.

3. Rock Ya-Sin is a particularly interesting pick. He played almost exclusively in man, and needs to learn zone. I bet Desir has one boundary CB locked down, Moore has the nickel CB spot, and Wilson/Ya-Sin fight it out at the opposite CB spot. I love the heat this puts on Wilson. Colts are either gonna get the best version of Quincy Wilson, or quickly discover it's time to move on.

I think Colts will benefit from Moore moving in full-time to slot role. He was playing more & more of that down the stretch as Wilson regained coaches' trust outside, but now there's almost no reason to play Moore on the boundary, where he's average-below average and, to a larger point, negated as a blitzing option.

(To be clear, this should read: I think Kenny Moore is a baller and top-5 slot corner in the game. Allowing him to remain home there is GOOD news!)

4. Ben Banogu clearly a pick in the spirit of multiplicity. I'm not sure what to make of his designed role, and I'm not sure the Colts know the specifics yet either. Bet we see him in a few different spots and packages in camp, and they see what they have. Good news for Banogu is: he's not exactly filling legendary shoes at SAM, and Colts are typically in nickel anyway, where I don't think Banogu has a huge role unless he finds a spot at DE in nickel.

5. Parris Campbell is a lights-out pick. I don't expect a 1,000-yard receiver, but he opens up so much of the mesh offense that couldn't be unlocked with Pascal et al last year. The jet sweeps that went to Rogers and Pascal last year? Yeah, those belong to Campbell now. The drag routes to Ryan Grant? That's Campbell now. This is gonna be fun with a coaching staff that knows how to use him (as I still maintain Phillip Dorsett could/should have been...)

6. I'm most intrigued by Bobby Okereke of anyone. After the KC game, I asked on here if it would be crazy for IND to try to upgrade from Anthony Walker. I like Walker and think he's a productive player! But he was a MAJOR liability vs KC.

Not calling Okereke a Day 1 starter, but with that athleticism and wingspan, he has some real potential to be a nuisance over MOF. I love getting more athletic at MIKE when Darius Leonard is your WILL.

7. I do think a big ripple effect of these LB selections in general is: the DL now has more pressure to stop the run from the interior. Margus Hunt was exceptional there in 2018; can he do it again (and stay healthy) in 2019? I wouldn't discount the ask this places on DL. I don't think the Colts necessarily got more physical at LB (but to be clear: I'd trade physicality for athleticism any day in today's NFL, if it's either/or!)

8. The Khari Willis pick was odd. He doesn't fit any of the athletic profile Ballard insists upon. Ballard seemed to emphasize his intelligence more than anything. You figure Ballard had to see something special to not only move up 20 spots, but also to ignore the athletic traits he insists upon. Time will tell, but I'm skeptical when people trumpet a player as smart/intense/hard-working and not productive or athletic.

9. I'm sure Tell gets that look at CB, but Ballard's presser confirmed what I thought: he's a CB/S hybrid and the larger point is that he's available as a big nickel to slide inside and match up against TEs. Think he and Wilson battle it out in that package, with Rock/Desir on the outside. But also wouldn't be surprised if it's primarily a special teams year for Tell (and Willis for that matter.)

10. EJ Speed? Sure. Why not? I'm just being redundant in my points about multiplicity at this point. I do think this year was a bit of an effort to buffer against short-term plans if Darius Leonard would ever miss some time, because they woulda been screwed if that happened last year.

11. Sounds like DE is the look for Gerri Green. I have no strong opinions. They needed DL. Drafted one.

12. And no strong opinions about the OL drafted other than to say they needed to push both Le'Raven Clark and Evan Boehm specifically, so I'm glad they drafted to do that. Would imagine Barton and Patterson are roster longshots, but any competition for Clark/Boehm is good. Both need to be pushed more, because both are the two most important backups on the OL.

13. I still have major pass rush questions, but I think this draft showed us the FO has a lot of faith in Turay and Lewis in particular.

14. I do wish someone had been drafted to push Funchess at the X receiver position. Campbell is a slot WR. You could argue Cain pushes Funchess, but man, I just hate placing high hopes on a receiver returning from ACL surgery, who won't be ready until Jul-Aug, whose game is predicated on speed, who has never played a NFL regular season snap. I want Cain to return healthy and be good! But it's a tall order asking him to push Funchess with all those hurdles to clear.

Feels like Harmon coulda been that guy? I don't know. I just don't like Funchess skating into the role, especially on a 1-year deal.

15. Was mildly surprised Colts didn't draft a QB. I guess they really just wanna carry 2, which I get. But this is Brissett's last year in IND, so I thought there was a decent chance they'd be looking to start developing someone to replace when he walks. (I still hope he's traded so the return is more immediate than a 2021 comp pick...)

16. I'm glad Colts didn't draft a RB. Woulda been silly this year. I do wonder if they woulda taken Josh Jacobs if he was on the board. We'll never know. But they have too many skillsets from their current roster to justify a pick.

17. Reading between the lines: I think 2020 is the Colts' all-in year. I still think they're good this year, definitely a playoff team. But I think they were still risk-averse this year. I think their locker room is so cemented by 2020 that they take more of a risk on someone.

Holder just tweeted that the Colts are working on signing QB Chad Kelly, Mr. Irrelevant from 2 years ago. The Colts were in on UDFA QB Jake Dolegala but pulled out of negotiations and said that the Kelly talks were getting closer to done.


https://twitter.com/HolderStephen/st...27013765918720

GBB if you grillin for a group of Colts Fans You day is awesome

I think BB is the steal of this draft for the Colts. Best pick we made IMO which probably makes him a bust. Sorry BB

Nah, I’m skeptical on Banogu so that means he’s bound for Canton. :D

Great write-up as always, GB.

Ballard during their post draft presser said that Banogu is going to be a DE. They said he was tried at other positions but they feel he's best at DE for them.

Ballard also mentioned how much they loved Willis. He siad they almost picked him in the 3rd round, that's how much they loved him. Basically he said the more film they watched on him, the more they fell in love with the kid, and they liked his intelligence and leadership. So while we may not like or understand the pick, the staff clearly REALLY liked this kid's film along with his character.

Ballard also mentioned during the presser about the team taking chances on guys with character issues, and he said basically what GBB is thinking, that they need to establish a strong locker room before taking a chance on any of those guys, that way if they do take a chance, that the locker room is strong enough to be able to handle it and not affect them negatively. He said he will be willing to take a shot here and there, but has to be the right guy.

I really like the Parris and Rock picks. I think those kids are going to be playmakers.

I will say this about the Willis pick; the guys on Sirius XM (Jim Miller i think) were raving about the pick. They were saying how the TE's at the senior bowl had high praise for Willis because they could n't get open against him.

Travis Kelce negater?

He said that about Green, FYI, not Banogu. Banogu is a SAM, but the idea is that Banogu/Okereke/Speed/Leonard/Walker can all play pretty interchangeably.

Oh ok, thanks. I missed that he was talking about Green there then.

Oh yeah, and FWIW, Kiper gave the Colts the only A grade of the draft. Maybe for once he will be right about something?

I don't like when the media likes the Colts drafts. They liked most of Grigson's drafts, hated last year's draft, and hated most of Polian's good drafts. That doesn't mean this year's draft is bad, but it makes me nervous.

I completely agree. Same with free agency. I am nervous when the 'experts' think we did great

Keep in mind that Jim Miller played for Mich. St.

I openly admit I don't watch enough college ball to know how good many of the rookies and and picks are or will be

But based on the positions and what I have read about these guys, I like the draft overall.

I keep reading about Rock Ya Sin being a main coverage guy and the colts running a zone scheme, but I have to wonder if they plan to run more man coverage, they just felt they didn't have the personnel to do it.

The drafted players at least fit in principle with most of the needs of the team, other than DL. Yes some might be redundant and create for competition at some spots but that is not a bad thing.

Given how last year's draft went I trust Ballard and now just can't wait to see what these guys can do. Not all will work out, but they don't all have to work out for the team.

Like you, I feel good about what we have added. However, I am sure fans of other teams feel the same way. This is why we have to wait until they actually play the games. I am excited to do so.

It's NFL Christmas, everyone is happy. Except Jets fans... and maybe Giant fans as well now.

My enthusiasm has a lot to do with the fact that this organization is finally running as a team. Our owner seems to be a nice guy who understands that his evaluation of players leaves a lot to be desired (remember him as GM) and is willing to give authority to whoever runs his team. With Ballard/Reich that is a very good thing. Ballard is picking up athletes of a certain ilk. It is looking like they are athletes of the kind that the coaching staff feels would work best in their particular style of football. Athletes that are raw and need molding by the coaching staff. Athletes that have a mental makeup that is conducive to being taught. If this staff can teach (and so far it seems like they can-the question is can they take it to the next level) things look pretty damn rosy for us Freaks. I'm pretty pumped to see what this team looks like on the field, especially in weeks 12-16 after a little seasoning.

Perfect metaphor

Athletes, the people we had been lacking lately!

I think it is more they don't want to look silly doubting the exec of the year who just had one of the greatest drafts ever.

Yep... that means he drafted for need and not BPA like he said he was going to. The media always picked needs for teams.

He also said it would be a defense-heavy draft , so BPA is obviously a fluid concept. Need will always be a part of the draft to some degree.

I think it depends a bit on what type of depth the draft has. Ballard stated before the draft that they had Players 16-70 ranked very closely together and you really had to split hairs to rank one over another. At that point, you can take a look at your needs and address them.

Besides Ballard, SI's MMQB had the same observation before the draft when they posted their final mock draft:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/22/mo...dwayne-haskins

Has he ever done that before. Don’t think he has. I was trying to see if ESPN would do a bit on EJ Green and if walking draft encyclopedia Kiper knew anything. But they stayed at commercial then skipped over him. I guess even Kiper didn’t know anything about him. He doesn’t mention him in the grade either.


http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/in...t-picks-steals

Fans do too, that’s why their always upset when it doesn’t match up with their draft guide.

He most assuredly did not draft for need, because he traded down instead of taking arguably the best pass rusher in the draft, and he didn't draft a DT when two were needed before he traded Ridgeway.

Reporters arent experts. The experts are the people running the teams. And the draft is a gamble. Its not just athletic ability. There needs to be a mix of intelligence, determination, ability and some good luck.

And some times shit happens. Thats where character matters, in the front office, coaches and players.

This all looks good now. By the first game we might have a clue how this draft class will work out

He addressed the 3 tech last yrs draft. He added pass rush with Houston and BB. Can’t draft guys and then immediately draft more guys at the same position every yr before you let them develop. The UT is pretty stacked with Autry Lewis Ward and Turay and Hunt. Yes I know they rotated Hunt all over the line but he did some things at the 3 tech

Ridgeway wasn’t gonna make the team in Ballard’s eyes. So he got something for him

Sweat was a medical concern. That is why the team that finally took him is drafting high every yr

He said. We felt like we. We’re to address the LB position. And that’s where he concentrated CB Was a need. WR was a need LB was a need.

He preached trenches DL and Oline so I figured BPA in those areas and he took a corner. Yes I think Rock is a very good corner worthy of a 1st rd pick.

Time will tell I’m not gonna complain about this draft. I do think we add at least 1 NT and some more oline in FA possibly another RDE

One DE/DT who was injured for a good chunk of the year did not address the position. Including Lewis as a full DT, right now, the DT unit consists of Hunt, Autry, Lewis, Stewart, and UDFAs. That leaves the position dangerously thin IMO. Maybe they sign a free agent, but if they roll with what they have now, getting gashed on the interior may be the undoing of this team. That may end up a good thing, however, as Ballard tends to be thematic with his drafts. Last year, fixing the trenches was his priority, and this year he addressed team speed on defense. In both cases, the thing he addressed was what he felt the team's biggest weakness from the prior year was.

I liked the draft overall, but to me, the big question mark is what they made out of the 26th pick. Instead of Sweat or Abram, they got Banogu, Tell, and a 2020 2nd. Impossible to say if it was the right or wrong call at this point, but there's a decent chance Sweat is tearing things up by getting 10+ sacks in 2020 while Banogu and Tell barely get on the field and the Colts pass rush remains lackluster.

Just looking at the DL depth, they have to add at least one UFA body unless they're a lot higher on Stewart than they've appeared to be.

To me, it is all about wins. If sweat gets 15 sacs but we win the Super Bowl or even get close I'm good with it. This is how Ballard runs his draft. Every GM has misses. His way of thinking got us Nelson/Leonard and also traded out of 26. This is a damn good front office. My money is on us 'winning' this trade

I certainly wouldn't bet against them and they've undoubtedly earned our trust. And as I've said to Dam, we have absolutely no idea how the Colts doctors interpreted Sweat's condition.

All I'm saying is that I think there's a realistic probability that we look back in 2-3 years and second-guess the decision with hindsight. I'm not saying that's the most likely outcome, just that it's something I'm interested in keeping an eye on.

Kiper and McShay we’re both on ESPN radio this morning. They both loved the Colts draft. Just about everyone did. Some interesting things mentioned:

• Kiper said we nailed our first five picks
• Everyone agreed Ballard just gets the draft and knows what to do.
• 16-70 most people had the players rated similarly so trading down was a good idea bc you didn’t lose value but also gain a second in the next draft. Said you really had to nitpick the players to create any separation between them in this draft.
• Willis was his number 50 rated player and was a good value
• Mcshay was pushing Kiper’s buttons and Kiper made the bold predictions of the Raiders getting 10 wins and the Colts representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

How I see this draft. I think we wanted to improve dline but Sweat was the only guy there and they weren’t willing to gamble on his heart. They only liked the top guys for dline so when none were there they traded down. They concentrated on speed, character, and length. They wanted to get faster and longer on the back end. I think Ballard saw the QBs we would face this year and wanted to get better and faster at the second level. All these guys are versatile and will move around different spots. Sub packages will feature a lot of these guys. This will allow Eberflus to get more creative in his defensive strategy and you guys know what he can already do just last year. Expect to see some more exotic packages and strategies. Say a passing down you could have Turay, Autry, Leonard, Banagu, Gellis, Okereke, and Speed our there in the front seven. Who is going to rush and who is going to drop into coverage?

The biggest help will be the speed and length, just getting more stops will help the team overall and allow our oline to wear down the other team’s defense. And the addition of Campbell should give us yac machine who has a chance to score on every touch. Even if he does all the jet screens and other short throws we did last year. He still has room to grow as s receiver too.

I agree with you. To bad we don't know each other personally. I'd love to make a side bet (one guy pays for the super bowl tickets-colts of course), wait two years and maybe have Omaha make the decision as to who won the trade.

The Colts doctors are the ones at IU Sports Med. I have a family member who works with the doctors thoughout the IU Med system, and these people know their stuff. The doctors and residence of IU Med School are the people giving the phyicals and reading the scans and tests. IF they told me I had a heart condition, I would believe them and let them treat me. Oh, wait, that actually happened.

If the combine doctors found a problem, I would want my own doctors to see the guy before I drafted him. Just saying.

I won’t look back. Backwards looking keeps you in fear. You have to keep going forward with what you have and ignore the misses. Just like a QB who throws a pick. You have to shake it off and learn from it.

Heard an interesting thing on radio today. Rams wanted to draft Hines last year and we grabbed him a few picks before. So they drafted Henderson this year, interesting how things fall and influence each other. Also means Hones would have been in the Super Bowl. Maybe he would have been the difference and beat the pats since Gurly was injured.

They very well may have misdiagnosed him, it happens. I suspect his past characters issues combined with uncertainty with his heart made him less appealing to Ballard at 26, vs getting a shot at 2 guys with by trading back.

That's a great way to never learn anything. Reflecting on mistakes and the reasons they were made can help you grow, while reflecting on successes can help you learn to maximize them moving forward.

What's more is that we already know that Ballard agrees with me. He said that he did a lot of reflecting after Zach Banner didn't pan out and has made a conscious effort not to make that same mistake again.

Yep, I'm sure his reflection went like this (I'll never trust a damn thing Pagano tells me when evaluating a player.)