Originally Posted by FatDT (Post 61988)

BPA isn't this brilliant idea you seem to think it is. "Best player" isn't something most teams are going to agree on. It's best player on their own board. When they set up that board, they take their own roster, scheme, and philosophy into account. A team like ours will not value a 340 lb two gap NT the same way a traditional 3-4 team would. Therefore a NT ranked in the 40s by us might be a top 12 player for another team.

Team fit matters. No GM ever sets out to draft a "best player" that doesn't fit their team.

Originally Posted by sherck (Post 62002)

2016 was a draft that went as hoped.

2x O-Linemen in the first 3 rounds.
Safety, LB, DT all 4th round picks or better
But yet 2x more O-Lineman as depth

We were screaming for O-Line help in 2016 and that draft "delivered." The safety in the 2nd round was a head scratcher as I was hoping for a defensive front-7 guy but Grigson talked him up so much that I said what the heck.


Now, obviously, the results ended up being underwhelming. Kelly has been fine when healthy and Haeg has played much better than your typical 5th round draft pick. I think Ridgeway will shine in a 1-gap system.

But Green, Clark, Morrison, Bates and Blythe? Yeah....

But 2016 pretty much went according to my plan. I had hoped that we were going to get 2x O-Line starters out of it (Kelly, Clark) with at least one quality backup (Haeg) and that, along with a healthy Mewhort would have made the O-Line a positive position on the theam.

That did not pan out but I was pleased with the draft at the time.

Now, I completely understand that you are going to come back and analysze every pick and say that they were "need" picks and thus sucked. And I don't have a ton of response to that other than "Grigson sucked in talent evaluation (and just about anything not involving the cap)."

So, there it is...


Walk Worthy,

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 61992)

I’d throw out tiers of players being a factor as well. If you have a RB as the top rated player on your board, but you have 3 other RBs with relatively similar ratings do you take that top rated back? What if you are confident one of those 4 similarly rated RBs will make it to your next pick, but there is only one similarly rated guard and then a huge drop off? A smart GM probably takes the guard.

The bottom line is that any GM that goes strictly BPA or strictly need is going to be a bad GM. There is more to building a team than just acquiring talent. At some point you have to put the talent on the field and it has to mesh.

Originally Posted by sherck (Post 62018)

So, it has been widely conjectured that if BUF wants to move up for a QB to our current #6 spot, it would take their #12, #22 (or 2019 1st round pick) and their first pick of the 3rd round # 65. Total points for that are 2,245 vs 1,600 for our #6 pick.

NE now has two 2018 first round picks after trading away Cooks to LAR and one of the conjectures is that they are looking for a QB. To get to a point value similiar to what is being said about the Bills, they would need to trade:

#23, #31, #43 (2nd round), # 63 (2nd round) and #95 (3rd round)

OR

#23, #31 and 2019 1st round draft pick


Would you trade the #6 overall for 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick?

If Ballard would do that, it would mean that the #3 overall pick in the draft would turn into:

#23 (1st round)
#31 (1st round)
#37 (2nd round)
#43 (2nd round)
#49 (2nd round)
#63 (2nd round)
#95 (3rd round)

+ 1 2019 2nd round pick (NYJ)

1 premier prospect versus 8x 1st/2nd/3rd round good prospects

Thoughts?

Walk Worthy,

Originally Posted by JesusChrist (Post 62040)

I don't see Ballard trading with NE after the way they fucked him over (even if it did work out better for us getting Reich)

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 62058)

If it benefits us I sure as shit hope he would.

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 62029)

I would set the deal up with the pats, then cancel it at the last minute.

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62036)

I'm quite certain at least 3 of the picks in the 1st 3 rounds won't go as expected

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 62077)

I personally would only be surprised if he picked a QB or C in rounds 1-3. Other than that what positions can you legitimately say are set? I suppose you could argue safety but I wouldn’t be surprised at either Fitzpatrick or James being drafted. Ballard has a lot of directions he can go.

If you mean he may not go OL early and often like many want or assume then I agree. Wouldn’t be surprised either way. The D was already short on talent and the scheme change just makes it worse. I’m torn on what I’d prefer to see. Luck has to be protected. But damn this D needs some talent.

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 62092)

I won’t be upset at all if they take Roquon over Nelson.

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62100)

I st d corrected. The. It explosion will occur if they take Nelson. Ha

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 62101)

Nelson is the just about the biggest waste of a Top 10 pick I can imagine, so that seems accurate.

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 62103)

Wait! Someone understood Puck’s post???

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62100)

I st d corrected. The. It explosion will occur if they take Nelson. Ha

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 62107)

Can’t say I’d be happy with Barkley or Nelson. But the free agent signings (or lack of) and Hankins release have put me in a skeptical wait and see mindset. It’s already obvious Ballard isn’t going to do things in a manner I agree with very often, so I’m going to try to give him the benefit of the doubt until I see the product he puts on the field. I don’t see the value of either of those two at 6, but Ballard has a vision. Hopefully he can make it reality.

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62109)

So far Ballard has ....in his one draft.... done very well IMO. I'm not gonna second guess him. Grigson missed draft after draft after his first one and Ryan Kelley. So he deserved to take heat.

I'm not sure what Ballard plan is, but so far I trust his judgement and it seems like he has a plan. So I will sit back and watch and be supportive.

Players I would like to see in a Colts uniform,

1st rd Chubb... Nelson... Ward... Edmunds... James...

2nd rd Michel...LVE... Hurst...Hernandez...Price...BJ Hill... McGlinchey... Ridley....Kirk


My Guess the 1st will be Chubb or Edmunds but would be happy with any of the listed.

Getting 3 of the players listed above in the 1st two rounds would be amazing. And very possible

As far as Oline goes... I think just getting rid of Chud and his horrible offense will do wonders for Luck's health. Doubt Luck goes for 4000 and 40 anytime soon so we HAVE to have a running game but as much fun as it would be to have Barkley I think that would be a horrible pick in the 1st.

I will add that if by chance we end up with Barkley.... that will be an Irsay pick not a Ballard pick IMO

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62109)

So far Ballard has ....in his one draft.... done very well IMO. I'm not gonna second guess him.

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 62101)

Nelson is the just about the biggest waste of a Top 10 pick I can imagine, so that seems accurate.

Originally Posted by Coltsalr (Post 62218)

I mean, he seems unlikely to bust completely. I totally agree that the value isn’t there at the Guard spot at that position in the draft, but given the high number of guys that flame out completely in the top 10, calling him the “biggest waste” seems a bit harsh.

This also just might be me getting my talking points in order so that I’m not apoplectic in the event that they did draft him.

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 62269)

I am hearing that NE is trying to get one of the top QBs, Let's say they trade for Cleveland's 4. What does that do to the rest of the round?

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 62275)

For the Colts it hurts their trade back options but would likely mean Barkley is available to them since 4 is his most likely landing spot and I don’t see him going to Denver. I’m afraid if he’s there, with Irsays urging, he would be the Colts pick. So for me that could very well be the worst case draft scenario. Other than the additional player pushed down a few spots I don’t see it making a difference at all after the top ten since it’s assumed the top QBs will be off the board by then anyway. Certainly no later than 11 or 12 to Miami or Buffalo.

I guess if done pre draft it could make Buffalo desperate and drive up the price the Giants can ask from them for #2. But again, after the top 10 it’s not going to matter I don’t think.

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 62276)

But it could make our pick more attractive to those who want to trade up for the last QB available.

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 62282)

True, depending on what you think happens at 2 I guess. Giants seem to control how the draft will play out and reports of their thoughts are all over the place. Either way I don’t see Cleveland trading out of 4 unless overwhelmed by an offer. They have plenty of draft capital, need actual players at this point, and have been consistently reported as in love with Barkley. Or maybe that’s just me praying they take Barkley so he’s not available at 6.

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 62275)

For the Colts it hurts their trade back options but would likely mean Barkley is available to them since 4 is his most likely landing spot and I don’t see him going to Denver. I’m afraid if he’s there, with Irsays urging, he would be the Colts pick. So for me that could very well be the worst case draft scenario. Other than the additional player pushed down a few spots I don’t see it making a difference at all after the top ten since it’s assumed the top QBs will be off the board by then anyway. Certainly no later than 11 or 12 to Miami or Buffalo.

I guess if done pre draft it could make Buffalo desperate and drive up the price the Giants can ask from them for #2. But again, after the top 10 it’s not going to matter I don’t think.

Originally Posted by Chaka (Post 62285)

What are the grounds to believe, as several have mentioned on this board, that Irsay will be urging that the Colts draft Barkley? I know he's made a comment or two about drafting a franchise running back, but why do you believe that Irsay will try to force that pick?

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 62283)

Say NE gets NYG to trade the #2, and then select Rosen. What happens then?

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 62320)

Pats don’t have the capital to outbid Buffalo.

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62353)

I can actually see Bill trading Brady at some point...

Originally Posted by rcubed (Post 62354)

Kraft won't allow it.

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62356)

I am pretty sure Bill has complete roster control. I think I read that somewhere

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62353)

They could add in Gronk and Brady. I can actually see Bill trading Brady at some point... But of course Brady would just retire. Either way I don't think Bill is too happy with Brady's whining about the trainer dude and the bullshit surrounding the trade of Jimmy G

No I haven't been drinking

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 62377)

Trying to think of my ideal realistic scenario now for the first few rounds. Just trying to wrap my head around these two options. As much as I want Chubb, it’s hard to pass up Option 2 in an ideal world.

Option 1:
Chubb
Hurst
Miller/Hernandez
Jefferson
Michel/Jones/Penny/Johnson

Option 2:
Trade 1.06 to Buffalo for 12, 22, 3rd
Smith
Trade 22 to NE for 31, late 2nd
Hurst
Miller
Hernandez
Key
WR
RB
+3rd (likely LB)

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 62583)

I have been thinking its going to be Edmunds as the pick. But he is being looked at due to his athletic ability and potential..... Does this remind you of a certain safety on the roster right now?

Remember TJ came in with great physical skills and just needed coaching. Most on here hate him and want him cut....

I know that there is a huge difference in talent but still.... would Smith or James be the better pick? Ballard can't make a mistake. Nelson is the safest pick if he is still there.... I think Ballard is pretty conservative in his approach so I wouldnt be surprised to see Nelson as the pick.

Really going to be an interesting draft to see unfold


Just something to think about

Originally Posted by nate505 (Post 62585)

I like Edmunds, but I hope he can be had with a traded down pick.