I think everyone here is underestimating how valuable Andrew Luck was. I like what Ballard has done with the team as a whole, but Luck was on a completely different level than Brissett as a QB. I think with careful management and gameplans designed to build confidence, Reich may be able to get average to above average starter production out of Brissett, but he's not going to win you games like Luck. It's possible that the young talent on this team is ready to step up and this could still be a playoff team, but I think it's much more likely that we're trying to figure out which of Tagliavoa, Herbert, or Fromm we want.

I don't think we will have a shot at any of those QB's. I don't know if I want them either. And outside of a total collapse we will not get Lawrence in 2021.

I don't know if I am elevating JB so much as elevating the talent around him. Four top 40 picks on the offensive line to protect him. His receivers in 2016 besides TY were Dorsett, Moncrief, Rogers, and Quan Bray. TE's Allen and Doyle; with RB's Gore and Turbin. This year he has TY, Rogers and Doyle again, but you add Funchess, Ebron, Cox, Hentges, Cain, Cambell, and Pascal. Much more YAC potential with Ebron, Cain, and Cambell. Out of the backfield Mack and Hines, who is almost a receiver.

Add a younger faster defense with a good pass rush specialist. I see wins being more complete and dependant on team play. The won't lean on JB like they did on Luck. He needs to be more game manager and just move the chains, get the ball to his playmakers and let them work. Lean on the defense more.

I had always felt that our being a Super Bowl contender was more about the improvement in defense than anything else. If Brissett performs like Ballard/Reich think he will (and I do think both are straight shooters) this offense should be playoff caliber.

I think the floor is 6 wins, upside is 11, 8 is most likely. No Brissett won't win games like Luck, but the group around him is better than any that Luck ever had. That's where the upside comes in.

Plus, the NFL is just fucking weird due to the small sample size. A couple injuries or turnovers here and there can make a huge swing in a team's final record. Players can play above their heads for stretches and make all the difference (see: Foles, Nick; Flacco, Joe).

There's almost always a game that a team needs their QB to win, even the most complete teams. I don't think Brissett has that ability. I hope he proves me wrong.

I'm not sure what you mean. Frank Reich was a mediocre quarterback that led one of the greatest comeback in NFL history. Are you saying Brissett is incapable of leading this team to victory once we are behind? The only way I think this statement is true is if Brissett is the second coming of Tolzien. I think you are way underselling this young man's (and this coaching staff's) potential.

The thing that made that game so historic was the sheer improbability of it. I think I don't want to see what happens if Jacoby Brissett is facing a 38-10 third quarter deficit in the playoffs and coming off of his third interception of the game. I'd certainly be absolutely stunned to see him turn that into a 45-44 win.

I agree with this. It would be stunning, however, regardless of who is the qb. Brissett won't due what Luck did for us (you don't need what Luck did for us to win-Brady isn't near the athlete Luck is but has led his team to umpteen Super Bowls). If the season turns to shit I don't think it will because of Brissett. Like you, however, I am concerned-I just harbor more hope.

Realistic Expectations:
I expect the defense to be better than last year.
I expect brissett will be better under reich than he was under pagano.
I expect the team to be a up and down.
I expect we will win 6-7 games.

I expect our running game to be better than last year also.