The problem is that the basis of your post was unmoored from the flow of the game. Sometimes, when a butterfly flaps its wings in Shanghai, there isn’t a hurricane in Guatamala.

Sometimes, when you miss an extra point, nothing much changes between that point and the moment you’re forced to go for it on 4th down rather than kick a FG.

On the first Houston drive, after Badgley blew the kick, they scored a TD to go up 10-6, so it’s hard to imagine Houston coming up with a better outcome if they’d altered tactics.

Colts got the ball and embarked on an 8 play drive that petered out at the Houston 47.

They punted to the Texans with less than two minutes left, and time ran out for Houston with a failed hail Mary.

Texans got the ball to start the 2nd half…moved the ball pretty well, but settled for a FG on 4th and forever.

Colts score to tie it at 13.

Houston comes back and scores a TD. 20-13. No better outcome is possible.

Next drive, the Colts settle for a FG after Downs drops a 3rd down pass at the Texan’s 15 yard line. If Downs comes down with the ball, if he twirls out of the tackle and gains a 1st down, if it’s 4th and short, maybe Steichen goes for it. But on 4th and 7, with 8 and change left, the FG was the only choice. 20-16.

Houston then drives to Indy’s 17, but fail to convert a 4th and 1. This is the only point in the game where the Texans might have taken a different course. But, they were obviously intent on stretching their lead to two scores.

Colts get the ball back, can’t settle for 3, and turn it over on downs.

Houston runs out the clock.

And, if the blown kick had been inconsequential, Badgley would still have a job.

It's almost like the NFL backloaded our schedule on purpose, I think they enjoy building up Colts fans hopes and then ripping their hearts out! I think we get 2 wins, 49ers and Jags in Indy, can't see us winning more than that. There might be a chance that the Texans won't have much to play for last game, maybe a win can't improve their position....but they would probably still beat us just for spite!

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The Colts didn't cut Badgley for that missed extra point.

The Colts cut Badgley because he missed 3 extra points out of 21 attempts over the course of 7 games (18 out of 21.)

If Badgley had made all of his previous extra point attempts prior to Sunday's game (19 out of 19) and they cut him for missing the extra point on Sunday, it would have been an extremely dumb overreaction by the GM. They didn't immediately cut Adonai Mitchell for dropping the ball at the one-yardline, and they certainly did not cut Badgley for missing a single extra point against the Texans. His overall body of work (in particular, his 18 out of 21 extra point attempts) was insufficient.

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The problem with your presumption about the importance of that kick is that you aren't taking consideration the cause-and-effect process after a missed extra point in the 1st quarter of a game, as though it occurred in a vacuum and necessarily had an effect on everything that happened after that, including the final drive.

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The miss came midway through the 2nd Quarter

The Texans had 6 drives after the miss, two of them as time was running out in the halves. That left 4 meaningful drives, 2 of which resulted in Touchdowns, one in a FG on 4th and 21, and one in a turnover on downs. In other words, the Texans pretty much maximized their scoring opportunities. There was little or no room for improvement in their performance based on cause or effect.

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There is tons of room for cause-and-effect. You are presuming that each and every play that was called by both teams would have identical to what actually happened had the extra point not been missed. It's like when a player gets caught stealing in baseball, and then the batter hits a home run on the next pitch. Fans immediately start screaming that it would have been a 2-run Homer if the baserunner had not been caught stealing. False. The pitcher would have still been pitching from the stretch had the baserunner not been caught stealing, and he would not have been throwing the same exact pitch at the same exact speed as he did when he gave up the Homer. Not only that, but the batter likely would have been looking for a different pitch than the one that he hit out of the park. He may have homered, he may have singled, or he may have hit a pop-up. Similarly, the 50 or 60-odd plays that were called from scrimmage after the extra point was missed midway through the 2nd Quarter would not necessarily have played out as they did after the miss.

The Colts lost the game because they were outplayed by the Texans when it mattered, not because of a missed extra point in the 2nd Quarter, and not even because of an egregiously bad pass interference call in the 4th quarter. Neither of those situations occurred in a vacuum, and as I pointed out in the game thread, there wasn't a peep of complaint from Colts fans about the officiating when the referees called 3 consecutive penalties on 3 consecutive plays on the Texans in the first half. The Colts lost because they were outplayed on the field when it mattered.

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I said after the Steelers game that the wheels were very close to coming off. I said the Falcons game would be a toss up and it was. We were lucky to win that.

I said if they could just win their three remaining home games, they’d cruise to the playoffs.

I felt like Sunday was a potentially season breaking game if they lost, because they absolutely could not afford to lose that game. And that’s exactly what happened.

Now we have a brutal 2 game road trip against 2 very good teams.

The Colts are going to have to nut up and find something or they will lose out.

Pretty simple. If the Colts are playoff worthy, they'll win on Sunday vs the Jags. If they lose that game, they're not making the playoffs.

By the time it was 13-13 later in the game, it was inconsequential. Tie game at that point, might as well have been 0-0. But the texans won from that point forward.