If the Colts can stay relatively healthy, I really believe they can go 12-4.

12-4 Mfers

This year I'll try a different approach, just adding up my percentage assessment of winning each game:

Week 1 - at Jacksonville Jaguars (0.85 = 85% chance of winning)
Week 2 - Minnesota Vikings (0.5)
Week 3 - New York Jets (0.8)
Week 4- at Chicago Bears (0.6)
Week 5 - at Cleveland Browns (0.6)
Week 6 - Cincinnati Bengals (0.9)
7 Bye
Week 8 - at Detroit Lions (0.75)
Week 9 - Baltimore Ravens (0.2)
Week 10 -at Tennessee Titans (0.4)
Week 11 -Green Bay Packers (0.35)
Week 12 -Tennessee Titans (0.6)
Week 13 -at Houston Texans (0.5)
Week 14 -at Las Vegas Raiders (0.6)
Week 15 - Houston Texans (0.6)
Week 16 - at Pittsburgh Steelers (0.4)
Week 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars (0.9)

Total wins = 9.55, rounded up to 10

I like your methodology. I believe you are overrating the Packers and Steelers, and maybe underrating the Vikings (home opener...I know), but that's why they play the games.

FWIWIMPYO, I put no complete season due to Covid. If they play the whole slate, I think 10-12 wins because I think Rivers still has it.

You could very well be right. The Vikings will probably be favored in that game, assuming they beat GB this week, but its our first home game and I think we're better than many people think. The Steelers have beaten us so many times over the years that I'm gunshy about them, so I'll stick with my assessment there. The GB assessment may be low though. On the other hand, I feel I may have stretched a bit on NYJ. They always seem to play us well, so my 80% win prediction might be a bit optimistic.

For those predicting 12 wins, I hope you're right but I'd be hard pressed today to be able to increase the percentages enough to reach 12 wins under this type of analysis. That doesn't mean we won't get to 12 wins, on that (in my view) we need a bit of luck on our side.

EDIT: I hope you are wrong about COVID. My personal opinion is that we'll have a full season, but there will be outbreaks which will change the playing field abruptly (and dramatically) at times.

Bump

Well, half right at least

o

Off by a game and-a-half ...... not bad, not great.

o

If not for the COVID game against Tenn, you would have been right. The timing there is why we did not win the division.