The Colts made history today. Congrats!
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/c...SPM-16-10abi8d

The new Harper’sw wofe

Bills M Afia!

He fumbled the ball backwards out of bounds, by rule the clock keeps running.

100 million, you can do both.

Ah ok. Didn't see that and they didn't replay it. Makes sense now.

Yep. It'd be good if Ballard could convince Veldheer to play next year as our backup swing OT.

It sucks that we didn't take a chance on Montez Sweat in last year's draft. Although if Pittman turns into a top WR then the trade will somewhat work out I suppose.

Well done, Ballard for getting a LT.

First, $100 million is an exaggeration by a lot. Counting the 2020 rollover, the Colts have $72 million in cap space against the projected 2021 cap. That seems like quite a bit until you look at the unrestricted free agent list:

QB Philip Rivers
QB Jacoby Brissett
WR T.Y. Hilton
DE Justin Houston
DE Denico Autry
S Malik Hooker
CB Xavier Rhodes
RT Le'Raven Clark
SS Tavon Wilson
CB T.J. Carrie
TE Trey Burton
OT Chaz Green
OC Joey Hunt
DT Taylor Stallworth
CB Tremon Smith
RB Marlon Mack
LB Anthony Walker Jr.
DE Al-Quadin Muhammad
P Ryan Allen
OT Jared Veldheer

That's nearly half of the DL rotation, all of the QBs but Eason, Hilton, Walker, and Rhodes that at the very least you have to consider retaining. I know I'd want Autry, Muhammad, Stallworth, Rhodes, and Hilton back at the very least. I think the team could withstand losing pretty much everyone else without missing a beat. How much will those 5 cost? Conservatively $30 million? If you want the three good backup OLs on that list as well, make it at least $35 million. Now let's look at RFAs, which is a short list:

WR Zach Pascal
S George Odum

Assuming an "original round" (see: only RoFR) tender for both, that's another $4.5 million, so let's call that $40 million.

That leaves $32 million with Jacob Eason as the only QB on the roster. Assuming a roughly $7 million rookie pool, that leaves $25 million. If Rivers resigns for $20 million, there's your $5 million of roster churn space. If you don't resign Hilton and Rhodes, maybe that's another $20 million, so who do you spend that on? You could get a different #1 WR for that money, maybe Kenny Golladay or JuJu Smith-Schuster, but that's going to cost $15 million per year at least, probably more. You could take a chance on Bud Dupree and his torn ACL or Von Miller who hasn't played this year from what I can tell, but either of them will cost $12+ million. Bottom line is there's not a lot of room for the Colts this year. Either they're going to let a lot of their team go or they're not going to have much room for outside free agents, and next year is when guys like Leonard, Braden Smith, etc. start coming due. Nelson is after 2022, so are Okereke and Willis. Then in 2023, Pittman, Taylor, Blackmon, and this year's first rounder if they're any good come due. There will likely be a $40 million jump from 2021 to 2022 cap, but the Colts don't have the monstrous amount of room they used to anymore.

Rock ya sin as well. Still, you don’t get many shots at a guy like Sweat. They probably really worried about the bad heart diagnosis.

I really wanted Sweat, was stunned when he was available at 26, and even more stunned when Ballard traded out. Wouldn't be nearly as worried about all the DL the Colts are losing with him.

Ya-sin sucks. The only things he's good for are getting beat deep and at least 1 big PI call a game. The reason why I only brought up Pittman is bc I have no faith that Ya-sin will pan out. Hope I'm wrong.

I was thinking about Rock a little this week.

If he can start making some positive plays and force some TO's like that pick he pulled off against Rogers, we can probably forgive some of the PI's and holding calls.

I like his physicality and he would have helped Indianapolis yesterday. The referees let the DB's play pretty physical and I think he would have been able to contribute more so there.

Next year he needs to start forcing turnovers or making explosive plays one way or another.

We have 22 expiring contracts.

Agreed. He starts forcing turnovers and making big plays then we can probably live with his penalties. Unfortunately, those have been few and far between in his first 2 years.

He is physical and a good tackler, but I'm not sure if he would have helped or not since he seems to always draw flags no matter how the refs are calling the game. He should definitely work on his holding techniques in the offseason to hopefully get away with more.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-age...napolis-colts/

We are only going to resign a handful and none are break-the-bank contracts.

This false narrative that we can't sign anyone because we have rookies coming off contracts needs to end. People have been saying it since Nelson's rookie year. Could have signed people and their contracts would have ended by now. And I am not saying go in debt but spend some of the money just sitting there doing nothing.

Are we a good team pushing the envelope or not? We just took the 2nd seed to the final seconds and they are a SB contender. If we are why not sign a little more talent to push us over. You guys know the pass rush, secondary, and receiving group needs it.

Isaiah Rodgers might end up being a fantastic find by Ballard.

Agreed. Rodgers looked good yesterday. Too bad he couldn't hang on to that int in the end zone, but you can't fault him for not being able to hang on to a diving catch like that.

Which ones do you have the Colts resigning? How much do you think that's going to cost? Also, please see below.

After I wrote this, I started playing around with over the cap and realized that their 2021 numbers seem to at least partially account for rollover amounts, so the Colts may have even less than I thought when I wrote this post. Of course I also think their 2021 estimate is based on the negotiated cap floor of $175 million, and I've heard rumors that it will be closer to $190 million, so the numbers listed above may still be accurate.

If you try to go out and add Yannick Ngakoue and Juju Smith-Schuster, for example, those would be great adds, but who will you have throwing them the ball when their combined AAV is $25-30 million? Do you get Rivers to accept a 1 year, $15 million deal to come back? Will he accept that? Otherwise, you have to start eating into future cap space to get it done.

Do the signings have to be at the top end of the scale? I don’t know who they are going to add as QB. What if they play Eason or a rookie? Then your starting QB is on a rookie deal. You ok with adding a FA then? Or do we have to wait 3-4 more years because the rookie will eventually be signed to a big contract.

You could still add to the positions groups. You don’t need to carry over 100 million every year looking four years down the road.

And no on Schuster, he’s a clown.

By the way, I am seeing numbers much lower than $100M.

Over the cap should have it. I saw 100 million on a ESPN report recently. The cap should dip 11%. Regardless, we will have a lot again and be the top or one of the top teams. We also had Jacoby on the books for a ridiculous amount and all he did was run QB sneaks. I would have rather invested that in someone who saw more snaps.

I can't believe it is such a hard sell to you guys that they should spend money that is doing nothing to improve the team.

Of all those on the FA list on the team, I think it breaks down like this:

Definitely re-signed (or at least given competitive offers):
DE Denico Autry
CB Xavier Rhodes
CB T.J. Carrie
DE Al-Quadin Muhammad
LB Anthony Walker Jr.

Probably re-signed/offered:
WR T.Y. Hilton
TE Trey Burton
DT Taylor Stallworth
OT Chaz Green
SS Tavon Wilson

Complete question-mark:
RT Le'Raven Clark
QB Philip Rivers
QB Jacoby Brissett
RB Marlon Mack

Not re-signed:
DE Justin Houston (I could be wrong here, but at his age, nothing more than 1 year)
S Malik Hooker
OC Joey Hunt
CB Tremon Smith
P Ryan Allen
OT Jared Veldheer

How I am looking at that list. BTW Allen had a QB rating of 126 against us. Still a ways to go with this defense.

Probably re-signed/offered:
CB Xavier Rhodes
CB T.J. Carrie

Complete question-mark:
QB Philip Rivers - Don't know what we will do at QB
WR T.Y. Hilton - often injured and getting older
DE Denico Autry - he is 31
DE Al-Quadin Muhammad - Could you find a cheaper alternative for similar production. Time for Banagu to step up? He is a 2nd round pick.
OT Chaz Green - Maybe for depth

Not re-signed:
DE Justin Houston (I could be wrong here, but at his age, nothing more than 1 year)
S Malik Hooker
OC Joey Hunt
CB Tremon Smith
P Ryan Allen
OT Jared Veldheer
RT Le'Raven Clark
QB Jacoby Brissett
RB Marlon Mack
TE Trey Burton
DT Taylor Stallworth
SS Tavon Wilson
LB Anthony Walker Jr. - We have another MIKE who will probably better

There's no point in adding if you're not adding talent that is better than what's on your roster. I singled out those two because they're young (both 26 or younger for 2021 season) and only one of them is seen as top of market. But why spend cap dollars just to spend cap dollars? I'd rather fill WR3, for example, by letting in house options and draftees compete for it instead of handing some mediocre veteran $5 million+ to not really improve the team. If something like DeForest Buckner comes along, that's how you spend your cap savings, and if you're going after free agents to try to have some assurance that they'll improve your team when you're at the level you're claiming the Colts are, you need to go top of market.

But also I don't really understand this claim, because Ballard hasn't been hesitant to go into FA to get bargains, either. Ebron was a bargain (didn't work out second season, but first season production was worth both seasons of pay), Autry was a bargain, and he went top of market for Houston and Buckner. I guess the question would be what move do you want Ballard to have made in the last 4 seasons that he didn't? There doesn't seem to be an obvious one to me.

Regarding starting Eason or a rookie in 2021, I'd be encouraged, because it would mean Ballard and Reich believe enough in that QB to hitch the organization's future and their careers to that QB. But that's because I'm of the opinion that the Colts have among the best coaching and talent evaluation staff in the NFL, something that clearly many NFL teams agree with considering how many head coach and GM interviews Colts front office personnel are getting. That said, will free agents buy in? If not, now you're paying a premium to get the same guys, and as we've seen over the last 4 years, he's not going to do that, and IMO that's a good thing.

It's $58 million according to overthecap. I'm bumping this post again because it keeps getting stuck at the bottom of a page where no one sees it.

o

You could also start a new thread, in which case it getting lost will be much less likely.

o

It is not a hard sell to me, if the money is there. I don't think there is as much after we sign who we need to keep or replace as you do.

There isn't. There's basically nothing if you want to retain any of the pending FAs.

I see no reason to resign Walker. He's the Colts 3rd LB in what's becoming a nickel league, and E.J. Speed will give you at least 75-80% of what Walker will give you (might even be better with extended playing time), including better speed at the position, at maybe 30% of the cost tops. I think all but Rivers on your "complete question mark" list are not coming back, and while I'd like to see most of your "probably" list back, I'd be surprised if more than two are. Also why does no one want to resign Veldheer? He'd be a great backup/swing tackle.

I'll break the list into similar categories as you:

Receive Competitive Offers:
DE Denico Autry
CB Xavier Rhodes

Receive Offers Commensurate to Team Role:
DE Al-Quadin Muhammad
CB T.J. Carrie
WR T.Y. Hilton
DT Taylor Stallworth
OT Chaz Green
SS Tavon Wilson
OT Jared Veldheer
OC Joey Hunt

Complete Question Mark:
QB Philip Rivers

Unlikely to offer:
DE Justin Houston
LB Anthony Walker Jr.
RB Marlon Mack
QB Jacoby Brissett
TE Trey Burton
RT Le'Raven Clark
S Malik Hooker
CB Tremon Smith
P Ryan Allen

Of those, I'd expect to get Autry and maybe Rhodes back, I'd hope to get two of the OLs and at least one of the two DLs back, and then look at free agency and the draft. I would of course completely change my opinion on Houston were he willing to take a more team friendly contract, but I suspect he will want numbers in the range of his previous contract.

For Veldheer, I just assumed he'd go back into retirement, but who knows?
what will Castonzo do?

I tried to do this on OTC, but can't figure it out this time. Based on the ones you mention, what cap would be left for even one free agent?

I don’t feel like going through every year picking out every move. And I don’t have time to do it. Although I’m thinking of doing a year by year analysis if I can. But that is part of the problem, he is only bargain shopping. Which is ok if you are rebuilding or close to the cap. We had to trade for Buckner and gave up a lot for him plus a huge contract, wasn’t FA. I’ll disagree on Houston, good signing but older, I don’t see him as top of the market. We’ve had a lot of cap space in the past and had a considerable amount last offseason. I don’t need every high priced free agent, but he could shore up our weaknesses with something involved a little better than what we have been fielding. Most of his signings have been good, I don’t think he has gone far enough in some areas. WR has been crap for several years. The one guy he did sign got hurt last year. Then it’s all a bunch of dudes or rookies. We could have gone after one of the pass rushers GB signed a couple years ago. We just missed another window and I don’t feel like the team is maximizing its assets. Do they want a SB or do they want to be competitive while saving lots of money? Could we have invested in a decent swing tackle? The stats were already out there, we don’t do well when Castonzo goes down. Reminds me of the baseball parable of the hitter waiting for the perfect pitch.

I think we do have good evaluators at the top, I wonder how many scouts we have still from the Grigson days. I’m also sure those owners are seeming the team be competitive while saving lots of money.

Save $$ with a QB on a rookie contract

I found the OTC thing, and plugged in the players I think we will likely retain, and it left just enough to sign the draft picks. Now, if Rivers isn't brought back, and we roll with Eason and a low-cost option at back-up, we could go after someone. The projected cap is about $40M less next year, which makes it tight. Now, they will have leverage with the lower cap every other team will also have, but you can ruin team morale if you go cheap with guys who should get good raises.

That is the only way I see us being able to go out and get someone. Draft a rookie and only keep him and Eason.

Reich just said he wants Rivers back

Could be coachspeak